A Bridge Too Far?
A year after the massive and controversial infrastructure project opened to traffic, its value remains up in the air.
A year after the massive and controversial infrastructure project opened to traffic, its value remains up in the air.
When it was announced that construction would begin on a bridge to connect Hong Kong, Macau and Zhuhai, the first question to come up was “Why?”. After all, Turbojet ferries had been connecting Hong Kong to Macau in about an hour just fine for decades. But the bridge was supposed to be a cog in the (then) proposed economic zone that would be the Greater Bay Area, and so construction began in 2009.
Ultimately, the 55-kilometre Hong Kongzhuhai-macao Bridge—the world's longest open sea fixed link—opened on October 24, 2018 after running over budget (for a final total of US$19 billion), several schedule delays (the first opening date was 2016) and accusations of shoddy construction and falsified safety tests. The bridge connects
Hong Kong to multiple points in the Pearl River Delta within three hours, and reduces road travel time between Zhuhai and Hong Kong from three to four hours to just 40 minutes. So, at the one-year mark, how is the HZMB doing?
The Numbers
“Any infrastructure project is built for the long-term benefit of Hong Kong and its value shall not be assessed by individual economic and social events [whose] impacts are typically considered cyclical and shortterm,” begins CBRE'S Marcos Chan, head of research, the Greater Bay Area and Hong Kong, of the bridge's worth right now. Like the rest of the world, it is impacted by the current trade war as well as the social unrest at home.
Immediately after traffic started moving the volumes didn't quite hit the projections. Nonetheless, final numbers from the Highways Department and the Hong Kongzhuhai-macao Bridge Authority stated the bridge welcomed just over 51,000 inbound and 52,000 outbound vehicles in November 2018. More targeted data showed the numbers represented an increase of 1.5% over the previous month.
The first hurdle was leapt when residents in the Tung Chung area protested the spike in tourists and the resulting congestion. As reported in the SCMP, much of it could be attributed to unlicensed travel agents taking visitors on unsanctioned trips without a local agency cooperating. In November, Guangzhou tourism authorities recommended putting the kibosh on weekend visits whenever possible.
That effort to reduce weekend traffic worked, and since then monthly traffic volumes have climbed steadily, with blips in December and June. As of July (the most recent official data available), total vehicles inbound and outbound was averaging approximately 70,000 per month, with about half of those being private cars.
Up in the Air
Not only was the HZMB designed to be a lynchpin of regional economic development (the Hengqin area outside Zhuhai was designated as a free trade zone a few years after construction started), the thinking was that it would be the match that lit the fire that is the developing Tung Chung CBD, similar to the trickle-down impact on rents and occupancy the high-speed rail link was theorised to have on the Kowloon office sector.
As of the first Christmas shopping season after opening retail sales didn't show much of a bump, but that was six months into the trade war and before any local turbulence. Now, the HZMB'S value and efficacy are nearly impossible to determine. With visitor arrivals down across the board, retail and hospitality numbers are suffering, which, “Has nothing to do with the purpose and hence the value of the Bridge,” notes Chan.
On the Macau side, as of November last year, visitor arrivals spiked 15.3% year-onyear, and sea arrivals dropped over 30% in the same period. The Macao Government Tourism Office attributed a 25% increase from Hong Kong visitors to the bridge, and leisure blog Macau Lifestyle called the ride from Macau “relaxing,” noted the impressive views and, best of all on point, faster and cheaper than the ferry.
Despite lower tourist arrivals and falling retail sales volumes, mall operators are bracing for short-term pain but expecting long-term gain—which the HZMB will eventually have a hand in. Bridge use, after all, was trending up before the summer's protests started, and according to Colliers International's third quarter retail research, international brands haven't soured on the SAR as a key retailing location. They're just cautious. New malls continue to open—v Walk, K11 Musea and Citygate's extension as three major projects—bringing new cinema and art experiences and edutainment to the whole family, which Colliers theorises is, “Counterbalancing the cautious sentiment. We believe Hong Kong [could] remain a top destination for overseas brands.” The consultancy recommends retailers take advantage of a slowdown and expand or re-enter core high streets.
Open 24 hours per day, there are still some restrictions on bridge travel on the SAR side, and permits are still capped at 10,000. For those waiting on a judgement call, the Hong Kong-zhuhai-macao Bridge's worth won't be judged by its one-year anniversary. Unforeseen factors have made that impossible. Similarly, it's impossible to judge it a failure. Time will tell.
Any infrastructure project is built for the long-term benefit of Hong Kong and its value shall not be assessed by individual economic and social events [whose] impacts are typically considered cyclical and short-term. Hong Kong-zhuhai-macao Bridge Crossing Vehicular Traffic