ASEAN Promises
Trade war or not, Southeast Asian markets are providing property investment havens for patient investors.貿易戰與否,東南亞市場持續綻放長線投資機遇。
While the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) official motto of “One Vision, One Identity, One Community,” may be inaccurate at its core—southeast Asia is among the most diverse regions of the world—its eight trillion dollar GDP has made it a global player. Property investors have taken note of ASEAN'S value and growth potential in both mature and emerging markets. As 2019 draws to a close, ASEAN is making good on the promise of 1967.
Cambodia
According to CBRE Cambodia, the country's condominium supply grew 17% in the second quarter of 2019 over the previous three, with most of that (75%) in the affordable to mid-price range. There were 13 new launches, putting nearly 7,000 new units on the market, as well as eight completions. Projects priced affordably or in the mid range have met great sales success. However, it is the mid-range and high-end properties that have seen rents trend upward: 4.3% and 2.8%, respectively from 2018 to mid-2019, with rental yields as high as 5.3%. Buyers still come predominantly from Hong Kong, Malaysia, China and Singapore, but demand among young Cambodians is rising. Regardless of trade tensions, Cambodia's economy is predicted to grow 7% this year (according to the Asian Development Bank) and the property market should remain steady, particularly with the effects of the Foreign Ownership Property Law, introduced in 2010, still boosting demand; the law allowed foreign nationals to own nonground floor apartments and condos. Land can be leased long-term through businesses incorporated in Cambodia— which may become more common if the economy continues to expand and diversify. However, in February the EU decided on temporary suspension of Cambodia's inclusion in Europe's Generalised Scheme of Preferences agreement for tariff-free imports after finding systematic labour and human rights violations that contravene it. The industry in question is garment manufacturing—and Europe accounts for 40% of Cambodia's total exports.
同一願景,同一立場,一同聯盟」是東南亞國家聯盟(簡稱東盟)的格言,但要各成員國實現共同目標其實很難,因東南亞是世界最迥然不同的區域
之一,國內生產總值多達8萬億,稱得上是
一個具規模的環球市場。物業投資者早已留意到東盟各新興及成熟市場的投資價值與增長潛力。2019年接近尾聲,東盟將繼續以1967年訂立的《東盟宣言》為發展依歸,向前邁進。
柬埔寨
據世邦魏理仕柬埔寨所指,該國於2019年第二季的共管公寓供應較前三季增長17%,當中75%屬中低價位,13個新樓盤提供近7,000多個單位,當中8個為已落成項目。中低價位新盤在市場上有不錯的銷售表現,但若論租金升幅,則以中價及豪宅物業較佳,由2018年至2019年中,分別錄得4.3%及2.8%升幅,回報高達5.3%。物業買家主要來自香港、馬來西亞、中國及新加坡,該國年輕一代置業需求亦持續上升。不論貿易戰如何發展下去,柬埔寨今年經濟增長(據亞洲發展銀行預測)將升近7%,物業市場維持穩定,2010年通過的外資所有權財產法帶動著需求。該法規允許外籍公民可擁有非地面層公寓與共管公寓,而只要在柬埔寨有商業投資,土地可作長期租賃,隨著柬埔寨經濟持續增長及多樣化,這種租賃方式將會更常見。但今年二月,歐盟宣布暫緩把柬埔寨納入歐洲的普遍優惠關稅計劃,原因是該國勞工及人權狀況出現違規,違規行業為服裝製造業,歐洲是柬埔寨的主要出口市場,佔總服裝出口量約四成。
Trade war or not, Southeast Asian markets are providing property investment havens for patient investors.貿易戰與否,東南亞市場持續綻放長線投資機遇。Cambodia’s economy is predicted to grow 7% this year and the property market should remain steady.柬埔寨今年經濟增長將升近7%,物業市場維持穩定。
Malaysia
Malaysia has been on Hongkongers' radar for many years, thanks in large part to cultural and linguistic familiarity, a high quality of life at lower cost, and of course the attractive Malaysia My Second Home programme (MM2H), initially targeted at retirees but increasingly appealing to a broader cross-section of Hong Kong investors for its dozens of international schools, excellent healthcare, political stability and a geographical position outside disaster zones. Hongkongers are keenly interested in luxury properties in Kuala Lumpur city centre and similarly secure districts, including Jalan Ampang (Embassy Row), Jalan Tun Razak, home of the forthcoming Tun Razak financial exchange, Mont Kiara and Damansara Heights according to Ivan Wong, senior manager, international properties at Hartamas Real Estate. “Hongkongers also prefer integrated master developments comprising retail, commercial and residential in mature areas outside of Kuala Lumpur, whereby amenities such as schools, shopping complexes and eateries are readily available, [and] they need not travel far for city conveniences,” he continues. “Developments within close proximity to public transport like the MRT, LRT and others, are one of the main criteria of selection.” Home prices in Kuala Lumpur are still below 1997 levels, and the city continues to outperform the rest of Malaysia, surging 122% between 2005 and 2015. Overseas investors are required to spend a minimum of MYR1 million (HK$1.9 million); prime Kuala Lumpur currently averages approximately MYR780,000.
馬來西亞
多年來,香港人一直有留意馬來西亞物業,主要原因是文化及語言相近、生活質素高而生活指數低,當然還有馬來西亞第二家園計劃。計劃原本針對退休人士,及後逐步吸引不同階層的香港投資者,該國投資優勢包括有多間國際學校、優質醫療服務、政治穩定,以及自然災害風險較低。香港人特別鍾情於吉隆坡市中心及同樣安全地區的豪宅物業,Hartamas跨國房地產服務公司國際物業部高級經理Ivan Wong表示,鄰近安邦路(Embassy Row)、加蘭敦拉薩克(拉薩國際貿易金融中心即將落成)、滿家樂及白沙羅高原一帶物業最受歡迎。他補充:「香港人亦喜歡吉隆坡以外的發展成熟地區,尤其是齊集零售、商業及住宅的綜合式發展項目,周邊有學校、商場及食肆,同時距離市中心不遠。另一方面,靠近MRT、LRT及其他公共交通工具的住宅物業,亦是優先考慮選購項目。」吉隆坡樓價現時仍低於1997年水平,市況表現持續高於其他地區,在
2005至2015年間,升幅達122%。海外投資者須至少投資100萬馬幣(約190萬港元);吉隆坡優質物業平均價格約78萬馬幣。
新加坡
自2018年底,新加坡樓市已被看高一線,樓價與租金於今年持續上升。去年,所有物業市場均表現理想,年中更需要推出遏市措施為樓市降溫。外籍公民購下滑,公私營房屋的價格差距擴闊,
Singapore
At the end of 2018, Singapore was forecast to be heading into a banner '19, with both prices and rents trending upward. Last year, all sectors were performing well, but midyear cooling measures pumped the brakes. Foreign nationals were slapped with an additional 5% duty on residential properties, taking the total levy to 20%, public housing flat (HDB) values were slipping and the price gap between public and private housing was widening. Nonetheless, and regardless of external factors, as of October, Singapore's property market was proving resilient. Both HDB and private properties were posting increased prices in the third quarter, and while rents remained mostly stable they did post modest gains: 0.4% over the second quarter for apartments. A great deal of Singapore's residential success in the third quarter can be attributed to unrest in Hong Kong, as international staff are being relocated to locations such as Kuala Lumpur, Tokyo and the Lion City. “The improving leasing market may be attributed to more expats being redeployed to Singapore lately,” Orangetee & Tie head of research Christine Sun to Property Guru in October. “Thousands of multinational companies have set up regional offices in the Asia Pacific, and Singapore may now be taking the lead as a key business hub in Asia in view of the rising tensions in Hong Kong.”
Vietnam
Vietnam continues its march towards becoming the new Guangdong as the world's manufacturer as well as a Southeast Asian financial hub. The late-october Ho Chi Minh City Economic Forum was the first major event to advocate—and court investors for—a development plan designed by the Ho Chi Minh City Finance and Investment Company and the Fulbright School to further that agenda. “Becoming a global and regional financial centre is key to bringing Ho Chi Minh City to a new level of economic and social development,” said City Chair Nguyen Thanh Phong on the Forum's opening day. That may not be a pipe dream. As Vietnam continues to draw foreign investment from heavy hitters such as Korea, Japan and the US, it has positioned itself as the ASEAN standout so far in 2019, and its fastest growing economy. This year, Vietnam has shown the strongest trade growth progress according to Standard Chartered's Trade20 Index, due to economic and political reforms, selected deregulation, infrastructure and human investment, increasing domestic consumer demand and strong exports with room to grow. Finally, for overseas property investors, forthcoming legal amendments that assure their property rights are going before the legislature. The Investment and Enterprise Law, in effect since 2014, has revealed some protection shortfalls, and amendment drafts to be presented in the next National Assembly will bring real estate law in line with international standards, and make investing in Vietnam more transparent— and even more attractive.但不管是否存在外圍因素,新加坡10月物業市場穩健,踏入第三季度,公私營房屋價格上漲,租金大致穩定,錄得輕微升幅(第二季分層單位價格升0.4%)。新加坡第三季住宅市道向好,很大程度與香港社會運動有關,國際企業員工因此搬到吉隆坡、東京及獅城等地。Orangetee & Tie研究部主管Christine Sun於10月在property Guru表示:「最近多了外籍員工遷往新加坡,令租務市場持續改善。數以千計的跨國公司在亞洲及太平洋設立區域辦公室,考慮到香港現時局勢緊張,新加坡現時可說是亞洲最主要的商業中心。」
越南
越南致力發展成為新的世界工廠及東南亞金融樞紐,胡志明市經濟論壇於較早前正式開幕,胡志明市金融與投資公司與Fulbright大學聯合打造運動投資發展計劃,進一步加強發展。在論壇開幕禮上,人民委員會主席Nguyen Thanh Phong表示:「成為環球及區域金融中心,將有助於胡志明市新一輪經濟及社會發展。」此話並非遙不可及,越南持續獲得來自南韓、日本及美國的海外投資者投資,至今仍是表現優秀的東盟成員國,經濟發展速度最快。據渣打銀行的Trade 20 Index顯示,越南今年的貿易增長最強勁,歸功於經濟及政治改革、部分管制規定獲撤銷、基建發展、人文投資、內銷需求持續及出口增加,而針對於海外投資者的物業權益保障法規亦即將通過修訂。自2014年起生效的投資及企業法,一直存在保障不足問題,而新修訂將於國會復會時審議,一旦通過,該地產法規將會與國際標準看齊,進一步提高越南投資的透明度,令當地市場更添魅力。