環球房地產投資展望2019年環球市場於動盪中前進，預期明年市道仍會受大事件影響。

A REVIEW OF MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD

Global property markets didn’t move all that radically in 2019, but a handful of events could make for a curious 2020.

2019年環球市場於動盪中前進，預期明年市道仍會受大事件影響。Global property markets didn’t move all that radically in 2019, but a handful of events could make for a curious 2020.

今年可謂多事之秋，各地政治、經濟及勞工市場有著相似變化，物業市場將面臨關鍵時刻。

英國脫歐持續

2016年英國脫歐公投初期，世界無不對英國脫離歐盟感震驚，但後來又慢慢適應過來。當時英鎊下跌，反令倫敦物業受惠，推動英國投資，市道回復正常。然而，英國脫歐一事在歐洲峰會上多次議而未決，限期一再推遲，都柏林、阿姆斯特丹、法蘭克福試圖挑戰倫敦在歐洲商業的領導地位。文翠珊宣布辭職，積極推動脫歐的倫敦市長約翰遜成為首相，原本誓要在萬聖節前退出歐盟，如今改為不遲於2020年1月31日，歐洲理事會主席圖斯克接受彈性延長的要求。

Look beyond Hong Kong's borders and one thing becomes clear: it's been an eventful year everywhere. Subtle and seismic shifts in political, economic and labour patterns are aligning so that the coming year could be a defining one for property in the future.

Still Brexiting

When the Brexit referendum happened in 2016, the early reactions were shock at the idea the UK would no longer be part of Europe, followed by a slow acceptance of it. The Sterling responded by tumbling enough to make purchasing in London and the greater UK a wise investment and it seemed to be business as usual. But then the Brexit agreements with Brussels came and went, deadlines passed, Dublin, Amsterdam and Frankfurt emerged to challenge London's European business supremacy. Finally, Theresa May resigned, Brexit engineer Boris Johnson became PM and vowed the UK would be out of the EU by Halloween. Needless to say, the new “flextension” deadline is January 31, 2020, which EU Council President Donald Tusk said would be honoured anytime up to that departure date.

While an election will go ahead on December 12, the parliament has proven “incapable of settling Brexit,” according to the BBC, Brexit has become the norm. Prime Central London rentals saw growth (by an average of 0.9% says Savills) for the first time since 2016. That said, entry-level, lower-end properties and the premium sector saw the strongest performance, while the vast mid-range that appeals to investors (approximately HK$60,000 to $120,000 per month) saw rents fall by 2.5% in 2019—22.2% over the past five years. “This part of the market has seen an increase in stock from accidental and boomerang landlords who are waiting out the sales market amidst the ongoing Brexit negotiations” said Savills.

對於12月12日進行大選，BBC指國會對「解決脫歐進程顯得無能為力」，脫歐事件將持續醞釀。自2016年以來，倫敦市中心首次出現租金增幅（第一太平戴維斯指平均0.9%），當中以上車盤、低價及豪宅物業表現最好，反之，中價物業（月租約6至12萬港元）於本年跌2.5%，過去5年跌22.2%。第一太平戴維斯表示：「早前一直等待英國脫歐事件平息的業主陸續重推物業，令中價物業供應增加。」

共享辦公室步向完結？

要數近年商廈市場最明顯的趨勢變化，一定是共享工作空間。自2016年興起的共享辦公室採用嶄新的「共享經濟」營運模式，提供靈活價格及全方位寫字樓服務，受到自由工作者、初創公司以至大型企業歡迎，亦為中小型企業省下不少經常性開支，更帶來多元化商業活動如撞球、啤酒之夜、社交聯誼等等。由龍頭Wework帶動的新趨勢在商廈市場不斷演化，更被視為未來新方向。其後，Wework更進行首次公開募股（IPO）。

可是，該公司於9月發生的IPO遇上重大挫折，預期集資最少30億美元卻未達標，最終要暫停IPO。WEWORK在合和中心、港威大廈及其他地區的辦公室或將棄租部分樓面，此舉在於向投資者確保其經營模式運作有效，以及順利獲得日本軟銀集團（Softbank）的90億元緊急融資方案。儘管Wework辦公室遍佈全球，其業務縮減亦將在其他市場感受得到，共享工作空間可否持續風行，仍是未知之數。The End of Co-working?

If a single trend took commercial property by storm starting, roughly, around 2016 it was co-working, the office leasing concept that appealed to individual freelancers, small- to medium-sized start-ups and major blue chip MNCS in equal measure. A model of the “sharing economy,” coworking proliferated for its flexible pricing, all-inclusive office services that saved small organisations massive overhead and, of course, beer kegs and Friday night socials around the office billiards table. Pioneered by Wework, co-working was quickly adopted and imitated as the future of working. But then Wework applied for an IPO.

Its September IPO turned out to be a humiliating failure, falling well short of its projected US$3 billion investor injection before being cancelled. Now, Wework is surrendering its planned expansion in Hopewell Centre and The Gateway and a handful of other locations in the SAR as part of a plan to ensure investors its (not terribly transparent) model is sound and the $9 billion bailout by Japan’s Softbank is safe. Regardless of Wework’s total co-working space worldwide, its contraction is going to be felt in markets from Seoul to Seattle. Whether it spells the “end” of co-working remains to be seen.

Not Just Hong Kong

Challenges to Madrid’s authority in Catalunya, the emergence of les gilets jaunes in France, and mass demonstrations in Santiago, Chile—the “New York of South America”—have made it clear the status quo is failing, whatever and wherever that is. Paris, the most popular tourist destination in the world, saw international arrivals for both business and pleasure plummet an estimated 44% in the months following the November, 2018 rise of the so-called Yellow Vests, whose fuel tax protest spiralled into anti-emmanuel Macron movement. In Spain, a vote for Catalan independence ended in a constitutional crises that became a mass civil disobedience resulting in a Barcelona travel warning—and a 30% to 50% drop in hotel and restaurant earnings through November. Most recently, a proposed Santiago transit fare increase sparked widespread civil protests across the traditionally stable beacon of South American economies over state corruption, wage disparity and rampant privatisation. The result was a slew of travel advisories for Chile after a state of emergency was declared. There is no data for the impact on Chile’s economy—yet. In each case, falling tourist numbers are likely to impact property if investors get cold feet and pump the brakes on retail or hotel openings, and business expansion that requires office space.

儘管Wework辦公室遍佈全球，其業務縮減亦將在其他市場感受得到。Regardless of Wework’s total co-working space worldwide, its contraction is going to be felt in markets from Seoul to Seattle.

豈止香港

全球示威浪潮持續，西班牙加泰羅尼亞、法國、有南美洲「紐約」之稱的智利聖地牙哥，均出現大規模反政府示威。自法國政府調升燃油稅觸發2018年11月的黃背心運動，被視為全球最受歡迎旅遊勝地的巴黎，商務客及旅客的入境人次大跌約44%。西班牙加泰隆尼亞獨立公投最終演變成大規模的公民抗命行動，多國向巴塞隆拿旅遊警示，當地11月酒店及餐廳收入大跌30%至50%。到近期，聖地牙哥市民因不滿政府調高地鐵票價而發起一連串針對貪污、收入差距及私有化等示威活動，這個向來穩健的南美經濟體其後頒布緊急狀態令，旅遊業因此大受打擊，目前未知對智利經濟造成多大影響。可以肯定是，上述地方的旅客人數下跌均影響到物業市場，因投資者傾向延遲新的零售店或酒店開業，企業亦會因應局勢擱置業務拓展，令寫字樓租賃個案減少。

黃金簽證

雖然巴塞隆拿受社會運動衝擊，但因有投資移民計劃，促使西班牙2019年創下物業成交宗數新高，巴塞隆拿物業買家大部分為海外人士，每宗成交額平均100萬歐元（860萬港元）。西班牙物業代理Lucas Fox表示60%的成交個案為海外買家。香港帝皇地產集團指出，受惠於馬來西亞第二家園計劃，吉隆坡錄得多宗港人移民申請個案，住宅投資門檻僅100馬幣起（190萬港元）。

在歐洲，葡萄牙（物業投資額為50萬歐元）、希臘（25萬歐元）、馬爾他（ 27.5萬歐元）、塞浦路斯（物業連流動資金共250萬歐元）均可透過購買物業（部分要求商業投資）獲取永久居留權或可續期簽證。黃金簽證曾經是財困國家（如西班牙面對歐債危機）吸納投資者資金的權宜之計，現在卻成了普遍現象，而且對經濟相當重要。假如各地緊張局勢最終緩和，黃金簽證將更有價值。

Good as Gold

Despite Barcelona being in the grips of social unrest, Spain was on the receiving end of a record number of property purchases with an eye to visas and residency in 2019, many of those sales in Barcelona to foreign nationals, valued at an average of €1 million (HK$8.6 million). Spanish advisory Lucas Fox transacts 60% of its sales with overseas buyers. Hong Kong-based Golden Emperor notes Kuala Lumpur is experiencing an immigration renaissance from Hong Kong, in part due to its Mm2h—malaysia My Second Home— programme, and relatively affordable entry point of MYR1 million (HK$1.9 million).

Portugal (€500,000 in property), Greece (€250,000), Malta (€275,000) and Cyprus (€2.5 million in property and cash) among other locations in Europe are just a handful of states offering full residency or some form of renewable residency with a real estate purchase (some demand business investments). At one time instant visas were trendy ways to lure investors when quick cash infusions were needed (think Spain during the Eurozone crisis) but they've since become more standard practice, and not necessarily looked down on. If events across the globe prove nothing else, it's that golden visas are likely here to stay.

馬來西亞受惠於馬來西亞第二家園計劃，吉隆坡錄得多宗港人移民申請個案。Malaysia Kuala Lumpur is experiencing an immigration renaissance from Hong Kong, in part due to its Mm2h—malaysia My Second Home—programme.