2019年香港樓市回顧在這動盪的一年，本地樓市傳來不利消息，但亦有意想不到的福音。

BEST & WORST OF HONG KONG 2019

It was a turbulent year in Hong Kong that resulted in some unwelcome property news— and a surprising number of bright spots.

在這動盪的一年，本地樓市傳來不利消息，但亦有意想不到的福音。It was a turbulent year in Hong Kong that resulted in some unwelcome property news—and a surprising number of bright spots.

今年一如狄更斯所言：「這是最好的時代，也是最壞的時代。」種種原因傳來連番壞消息，但在樓市方面出現了數道曙光，形成好壞參半局面。

好：放寬按揭比率

政府向購買1,000萬港元以下單位的首次置業人士放寬按揭比率，市場分析員普遍認為有助釋放被壓抑的置業需求，而降低首期亦有助釋放二手市場大量潛在供應，部分價格較低地區吸引首置人士，有望刺激樓市成交。

壞：社會矛盾急劇惡化

高力國際及萊坊均認為香港社會動盪，以及環球宏觀因素是今年最大挑戰。萊坊董事及大中華區研究及諮詢部主管紀言迅表示：「中美貿易戰拉鋸，加上香港有史以來最大的政治危機，令本地樓市大受衝擊，不論任何類型市場，普通情緒偏差。9月份住宅樓價錄得自2018年12月以來最大跌幅；零售市場則影響最大，銷售額大跌，不少商店結業。寫字樓市場租賃活動十分疲弱，租金持續下滑。」中環商廈空置率（由歷史新低）開始上升，第三季租金較前一季度下調3.7%，但這卻有利於現有租戶在續租時還價，以及即將來港物色寫字樓空間的公司。

As Dickens wrote: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,” and while most will fall on the “worst” side for a variety of reasons, there were indeed a handful of good things to emerge on the property front this year. If every cloud has a silver lining, there were just as many darts as laurels in 2019.

Best: Relaxing the loan-to-value policy

Most industry analysts agreed that relaxing the loan-to-value ratio for firsttime homebuyers on flats worth under HK$10 million was a good move that could potentially reinvigorate the sector due to pent up demand and buyers that have been waiting for this kind of opportunity. Lowering the initial, and often substantial, down payment required in the secondary market is also likely to free up a massive amount of latent supply that hasn't been exploited, and should stimulate the submarket usually appealing to first-timers for its (on average) lower prices.

好：住宅地供應增加

除了降低按揭成數，行政長官林鄭月娥在施政報告提出數個增加土地供應的主要措施，而當中最重要的是《收回土地條例》，可徵用700公頃私人土地作公共用途，包括450公頃的棕地及私人土地。然而，落實計劃需經歷漫長時間，目前香港人只可期待未來三年推出10,000個新的過渡房屋；公私營房屋比例調至七三比；新一輪居者有其屋計劃供應55,000個單位。

壞：零售陷入冰封

旅遊業指訪港旅客人數下滑（較2018年第三季減少23%），對業界造成極大傷害，酒店入住率只有65%，較以往低20%。今年截至目前為止，零售額下調17.2%。雖然國際品牌仍視香港為主要消費者市場（部分品牌如連鎖快餐店Five Guys及大型百貨店驚安之殿堂業績良好），但一線街舖租金下滑（跌7%），擴充計劃需暫時擱置。截至6月，高緯環球研究報告顯示銅鑼灣零售店租金仍是全球之冠，在商言商，目前市道是承租一線街舖的好時機。

Worst: Escalating social tensions

Colliers International and Knight Frank both cited unrest in Hong Kong, as well as external, macro headwinds as being the biggest challenges of the year. “In the wake of the prolonged China-us trade war and the worst political crisis in its history, Hong Kong's property market has been seriously impacted, resulting in poor market sentiment across all sectors,” said David Ji, Knight Frank director and head of research and consultancy, Greater China. “Residential prices recorded [their] largest fall in September since December 2018. The retail sector was hit the hardest, with sales dropping tremendously and lots of store closures. Leasing activities in the office market remained weak, with rents continuing to swing downwards.” Vacancy rates in Central commercial addresses are starting to creep up (admittedly from record lows) and rents are starting to trend down: 3.7% quarter-on-quarter in the third. That said, existing tenants find themselves in a better bargaining position for lease agreements, and the firms that do venture into the SAR in the near future will also be seeking office space from a position of strength.

Best: Residential land supply boost

Aside from lowering the LTV ratio, Chief Executive Carrie Lam's Policy Address outlined several key land supply measures, chief among them the Lands Resumption Ordinance. That crucial piece of legislation enables the involuntary re-appropriation of 700 hectares of private land for public use, including 450 hectares of private land in brownfield sites and squatter villages. That's a slow, long-term plan, so in the meantime, Hongkongers can expect 10,000 new transitional homes in the next three years, increased public/private housing split to 70% and new ownership schemes that will supply nearly 55,000 flats.

儘管整體氣氛疲弱，部分地產商在秋季前推出新項目，反應熱烈。Despite poor overall sentiment, the few developers that launched new projects in late summer were rewarded with robust sales.

好：刺激本地經濟

往好的方面想，五星級酒店價格從沒如此便宜過，對港人而言是歡度周末的首選；另外，零售業沒有了旅客，便集中吸引本地消費者，商場實行糅合「購物與娛樂」、「購物與藝術」及「休閒與生活」的零售概念，K11 MUSEA或許是當中表表者，推出其富前瞻性的藝術與購物體驗；荃灣的荃新天地、東涌的東薈城及其他商場則注入更多富教育性、互動性的元素，以及增添體驗性設施。

好：工廈投資持續

雖然中美貿易戰越演越烈，但今年本地工廈物業成交卻相對穩健，儘管11月份貿易總額下調8%，但因貨倉供不應求，租金仍可保持平穩。另一方面，活化工廈政策2.0減少了整體工廈供應，促使業主繼續持貨，或等待時機改為商業用途。

好： 豪宅及一手市場抗跌力強

儘管整體氣氛疲弱，部分地產商在秋季前推出新項目，反應熱烈，預期不少折扣單位在空置稅實行前推出市場，對於手持充裕現金的投資者，豪宅物業是最佳選擇，最近更有破紀錄成交，在聶高信山、大潭道45號、渣甸山的物業銷售，每平方呎價達85,000港元，售價達10億港元。紀言迅表示：「根據公司相關價格研究顯示，豪宅售價不易受經濟環境影響，因此不會大上大落。」

Worst: Retail woes… again

The hospitality industry has made no secret of the fact that falling tourist numbers (off 23% in the third quarter over 2018) are hurting: hotels are running at approximately 65% occupancy, which is roughly 20% below normal. As a result, retail sales are down just over 17.2% this year so far. Though international brands still consider Hong Kong a key consumer market (brands like fast food chain Five Guys and discount department store Don Don: Donki are performing well) and high street rents wavered again (dropping 7%) and expansions were put on hold—not cancelled. Research by Cushman & Wakefield determined Causeway Bay was, once again, the world's most expensive retail location (as of June) and current conditions, as in commercial, are actually an opportunity to return to high streets.

Best: Stoking the local market

On the bright side, staycations at some of the city's toniest five-star hotels have never been more affordable for Hongkongers, and the retail sector is following suit. With tourist dollars thinning, retailers have turned their attention to local consumers and embraced new “retail-tainment,” retail+art and leisure+lifestyle concepts. K11 MUSEA was perhaps the most high-profile location to unveil its art-forward, experiential shopping, but Citywalk in Tsuen Wan, Citygate in Tung Chung and others are positioning to be more educational, active and interactive malls, with facilities that transcend just shopping.

Best: Resilient industrial investment

Ironically, despite the Sino-us trade war showing no signs of abating, the city's industrial sector is proving to be one of the most stable property sectors this year. Though the Beijing-washington conflict has reduced total trade value by 8% through November, lack of supply has buoyed warehouse rents and kept them level. In addition, the Revitalisation Scheme 2.0 continues to reduce overall industrial stock, creating a boon for investors holding stock, be it for staying in the industrial sector or future commercial conversions.

Best: Resilient luxury and robust primary sectors

Despite poor overall sentiment, the few developers that launched new projects in late summer were rewarded with robust sales, and discounted units are expected to hit the market ahead of the looming vacancy tax. For those who are cash-rich, the luxury residential sector proved resilient. Some headline-grabbing transactions unfolded; sales at Mount Nicholson, 45 Tai Tam Road and Jardine's Lookout racked up numbers in the neighbourhood of HK$85,000 per square foot and $1 billion price tags. Ji: “Our research into price correlations also revealed that the luxury prices are a lot less sensitive to economic conditions and are proving inelastic.”