2019年地產市場回顧

REFLECTING ON 2019 AND LOOKING AHEAD TO 2020

Reflecting on 2019 and Looking Ahead to 2020

2 019年即將完結，今年是多事的一年，在本港和國際上不乏重要事件發生，讓我們回顧當中影響樓市的事件。

逃犯條例，大型群眾活動和不確定性

《逃犯條例》一開始已大大影響市場對包括樓市在內的長期投資前景的看法。土地註冊處數據顯示樓市交投從5月的高峰，一個月內下跌了44％，在接下來的幾個月亦持續下跌。

儘管樓價有所調整，但幅度卻不似預期（截至撰寫本文時的最新數據）。對比2019年9月與2019年5月，1000呎以下的單位樓價下跌了4％，而1000呎以上的物業同期只跌了3％。樓價跌幅遠低於2008年金融海嘯期間的15-20％，更遑論樓價較十年前高出很多。

施政報告2019

行政長官在10月16日發表的施政報告中，發表了幾項重要的政策公告，旨在讓香港人，尤其是首次置業人士和低收入一群更容易上樓。此舉短期內有效刺激樓市，但是否足以抵消事件帶來的下行壓力仍有待觀察。

利率–因果關係

在今年7月，美聯儲在過去兩年合共加息8次後首次減息。緊隨其後的是在9月和10月又進行了兩次調整，使利率降至目前的1.5至1.75％之間。鑑於港元與美元掛鉤，金管局也進行了調整，達到目前的2％水平。

美聯儲減息無非為抵消經濟增長的放緩。如果全球情況持續惡化，美聯儲有機會進一步減息來刺激全球經濟。

2020年應如何應對？

筆者無法預測貿易戰、英國脫歐或香港大型群眾活動將如何進一步發展。但是，香港內外發生的事件如過山車般造成了更多的擔憂，更甚是金融動盪。恐懼會生出恐懼，正是這種不確定性促使市場的信心和情緒起伏不定。

準買家和業主應牢記其長遠目標，不要將單一事件與短期趨勢混淆。在市場動盪不安時，投資者應保持冷靜，並謹慎行事。細閱更多相關文章，助你作出長遠及明智的決定，更可能是十年一遇的契機。

The end of 2019 is around the corner and it's been an eventful year with several milestone events. Let's look at some of these events and the ramifications it has on Hong Kong's real estate market.

Extradition Bill, Mass Demonstrations and Uncertainty

Even prior to triggering the ensuing clashes with police, the Extradition Bill immediately created uncertainty around Hong Kong's long-term political and legal freedom; impacting confidence in Hong Kong's financial independence, business and investment environment and the real estate market. Residential sales transactions fell immediately, declining 44% in June from their peak in May1. As the situation escalated, concerns were compounded by the impact on Hong Kong's businesses, employment and overall economy. This additional layer of fear towards the impact of the civil unrest has steadily led to further declines. As one would expect, there's been a correction in prices. However, it hasn't been nearly as significant as many believe.* Residential units smaller than 100m2 have, on average, fallen 4% since the demonstrations began, while larger units (>100m2) have fallen 3%. This decline is relatively small – much less than the 15-20% declines during the 2008 GFC. Moreover, absolute prices remain substantially higher than they were 10 years ago. It's not to say prices will not decline further, since it's likely they will - or already have and the data has yet to show it. In addition, macro-economic data including GDP and fund flows are released several months after the fact. It's possible that these may differ from expectations and impact the market further if they deviate from expectations when released.

Hong Kong Policy Address 2019

Chief Executive Carrie Lam's third policy address made several key policy announcements aimed at making housing more accessible to Hongkongers, particularly first-time home buyers and lower income groups. It has incentivised more purchasers to enter the market, as seen in the uptick in October's sales transactions. However it's unclear if the expansionary effect will be enough to offset the downward pressure caused by civil unrest in the medium term.

Interest Rates - Causes and Effects

Brought on by mass defaults in subprime mortgages and secondary lending markets, the 2008 recession is considered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the second greatest economic crisis in history after the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US Federal Reserve brought interest rates down to between 0% to 0.25% and averted an even more disastrous outcome. These conditions lasted for an unprecedented eight years, almost as long as a full economic cycle. If interest rates remain at those levels, the Fed would lose its primary means of stimulating the economy if another crisis were to occur. As a result, it made a conscious effort to raise interest rates over the next two years. In July this year the Fed lowered rates once again, closely followed by two more adjustments in September and October, bringing rates down to current levels of between 1.5 to 1.75%. Given the HKD-USD peg, the HKMA also made adjustments, reaching its current 2% level. The Fed began reducing rates to offset slowing economic growth. It's safe to say that, if global conditions do worsen, the Fed is likely to use interest rates to further stimulate the global economy, which may prevent a dramatic fall.

What To Do In 2020

It's impossible to predict how the trade war, Brexit or the Hong Kong demonstrations will further evolve (or devolve), as the roller coaster of events has created more uncertainty about the future or, in financial terms, volatility. Market news contributes to this uncertainty, particularly when single events–a failed sale, or a deeply discounted transaction–are cited as proof that the market is falling precipitously. Focus on analyses that consider both the most recent events and the context of a longer-term perspective. In our opinion, it's likely the market will weaken as mass demonstrations continue or a recession becomes more evident. However, a wave of buyers rushing into the market during dips strongly suggests that pent-up demand and a fundamental interest in owning property will limit the extent of the decline. Residential prices have historically been more resilient than retail or commercial properties, and this is likely to continue to be the case. If you're a prospective purchaser or an owner, remain calm and follow the example of experts. When markets are jittery, they see opportunity by looking farther ahead than others. Being well informed will enable you to move quickly when an opportunity arises; this applies to sellers and landlords too. Taking a good offer when you have one may save you from being stuck with an empty asset for a period of time. Follow data and ignore speculation. We can't predict the future but can be prepared, make good decisions and act when the time is right. (1) Hong Kong Land Registry * According to the latest data available at the time of writing