倫敦地位不保？在英國脫歐、疫情與新稅等情況衝擊下，投資者該何去何從？ Brexit has finally begun but what does that mean for investors in light of pandemics and new taxes?
在英國脫歐、疫情與新稅等情況衝擊下，投資者該何去何從？ Brexit has finally begun but what does that mean for investors in light of pandemics and new taxes?
2020年1月31日，英國正式進入脫歐過渡期。在此之前，英國多次與歐盟談判破裂，還差點觸發二次公投。脫歐時間表一拖再拖，直到大選過後，英國推進脫歐議程，但卻要在新冠肺炎持續下展開。
在這動盪形勢下，英國財政大臣Rishi Sunak發表2020年預算案時說：「在新一個十年伊始發表脫歐後首份預算案，將為英國未來繁榮與政府對國民的承諾奠定基礎。」
過去四年，作為投資目的地的英國，其新聞都是圍繞脫歐事件，及後因新冠肺炎爆發，英國以至全球焦點轉向疫情。在4月初，萊坊倫敦住宅研究部主管Tom Bill於一個網上記者招待會表示：「英國脫歐及新型冠狀病毒備受關注，但與此同時，英國市場亦緩緩復甦，價格出現調整。『鮑里斯反彈』雖受到病毒拖累，但因抑壓需求上升，或使下半年價格上調。」
這次危機或見新機遇，財經記者John Stepek於四月版《the Week》提及：「我
認為現時利率將維持一段時間、通漲會持續，逐漸抵銷早前跌價所造成的負債，意味市場對實體資產如物業有更大需求，價格亦隨之上揚。」
On January 31, 2020, Brexit finally started. After multiple down-voted United Kingdomeuropean Union agreements, second referendum threats, deadline extensions and, finally a general election, the UK began the process of extracting itself from Europe. Given the subsequent—unexpected—covid-19 crisis, the timing couldn't be worse, but the process is underway nonetheless.
It's in this tumultuous environment that the UK'S finance minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, presented the budget for 2020, “The first of a new decade, and the first since the UK'S departure from the European Union,” the Treasury said. “It is a Budget that lays the foundations of the UK'S future prosperity and delivers on the government's promises to the British people.”
As an investment destination, the UK has been shrouded in little other than Brexit news for the past four years. The news now, as it is everywhere, is COVID. “Beyond Brexit and the Coronavirus, the market has re-priced and was in a shallow recovery,” said Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank in a web press conference in early April. “There was a ‘Boris bounce', interrupted by The Coronavirus. But pent-up demand is building and could produce price inflation in the second half of 2020.” History could be repeating itself with opportunity buried within crisis. “I think interest rates will be capped for quite some time and that inflation will be given as free rein as possible to take off and start eating away at all the debt we'll have incurred during this,” theorised financial journalist John Stepek in The Week in April. “That in turn could lead to higher demand for physical assets such as property, and higher prices.
基調不改
萊坊截至4月初的數據顯示，英國與倫敦豪宅市場已走出谷底，並出現調整，而此趨勢早於肺炎及脫歐出現。豪宅區如騎士橋、梅費爾、切爾西的價格，相對五年平均呎價大跌400英鎊（約3,867港元）。
然而，價格主要受到需求支持，倫敦至今仍未達到55,000個單位的年度供應目標，而2018至19年度尚欠19 , 000伙才達標，市況一直求過於供。今年1月，倫敦準買家人數有明顯增幅，升至15年高位；與2018年同期相比，更激增98%。
脫歐與不確定因素引致市場波幅，同時令英鎊匯價走弱。英鎊自疫情以來急挫， 3月英鎊兌美元從1：1.31跌至1：1.17，英鎊兌港元更錄得2016年以來最大跌幅（40% ）。鑑於環球經濟不穩，預期按揭利率維持低水平，資金流動性高，有利融資。即使年中環球市況有改善，萊坊預測全年成交量仍較去年跌38%、價格跌3%，但倫敦
市中心價格不受影響。
Familiar Fundamentals
As of early April, Knight Frank data suggested that both the UK and premium London property markets had bottomed out, and that the market was correcting—a trend predating both COVID-19 and Brexit. Prices in prime locations such as Knightsbridge, Mayfair and Chelsea saw prices down by as much as £400 (approx. HK$3,867) per square foot over the five-year average.
Nonetheless, prices are driven largely by demand, and in that respect London continues to fall short of its 55,000-unit housing supply target. In 2018/19 the target fell short by 19,000 units, and that's not about to change. In January, London saw a spike in prospective buyers, a 15-year high and a whopping 98% over the same period in 2018.
Brexit and the uncertainty that it comes with have conspired to create volatility and keep the sterling relatively cheap. And it's gotten cheaper since COVID-19, dropping from £1.31 to £1.17 against the US dollar in March for an overall 40% for Hong Kong investors since 2016. In addition, mortgage rates are expected to remain low in light of wobbling global economies, and so financing rates will remain low in the immediate future and keep liquidity high. Assuming some degree of normalcy returns by mid-year, Knight Frank predicts sales volumes will drop by 38% over 2019, with prices coming down 3% for 2020 and no change in prime central London.
Though Global Head of Knight Frank Research Liam Bailey points out a strong start to the year in the UK, which should continue eventually, “This expansion in sales in 2021 will not fully offset the losses seen this year. Meaning that of the nearly 526,000 sales we expect to be ‘lost' due to lockdown this year, less than half will be carried into 2021. For the government to see a full recovery of the market … there will be a need for substantial incentives to ease market liquidity—including a reduction in stamp duty.”
儘管萊坊國際住宅研究部主管Liam Bailey指出，英國今年勢頭強勁，最終得以維持，「惟預期2021年所得的銷售增長，不會完全補償今年的虧損，估計今年有近526,000
宗潛在成交因受到封城而『流失』，當中只得一半可能延至2021年成交。若要
市場全面復甦，便需要足夠誘因增加流動性，例如削減印花稅。」
新增因素
提及印花稅，英政府於預算案中表明會作出適度調整，並於今年實施。有關修訂包括物業印花稅、薪俸稅、資本增值稅、遺產稅，以及針對企業持有住宅物業的年度稅務，對投資者來說，這消息可能比疫情及脫歐來得更突然。
由2021年4月起，若海外買家購買英國及北愛爾蘭物業，需支付2%附加稅，較澳洲與加拿大多達20%（或香港的30%），這相對是個小數目。2014年，英國曾通過具爭
議性的印花稅修訂，有評論認為會窒礙市場發展，但修訂卻為英國庫房於2018年帶來900萬英鎊收益。另外，資本增值免稅額
（即可獲稅務寬免的增值金額），已提升至12,300英鎊；遺產免稅額亦上調，這類稅項雖然計算繁複，但寬免額可多達100萬英
鎊，有子女的投資者需要特別留意。
新的附加稅對倫敦市場影響最深，尤其豪宅市場，或使所需支付的印花稅增至17 % ，削弱「鮑里斯反彈」效應。新稅在2021年生效日前，預計會掀起一股購買潮，情況大致跟2016年修訂印花稅
時相似。新措施一如以往不受市場歡迎， Rokstone Properties董事becky Fatemi接受倫敦《Evening Standard》訪問時表示：「如今物業市場與外圍經濟疲弱，此時提高稅收只會導致成交量萎縮。」
New Factors
Ah, yes, a stamp duty. The government did promise some minor changes to property taxes in its budget and those did materialise this year. The promised changes included tweaks to stamp duties, income, capital gains and inheritance taxes, and the annual tax on enveloped (company held) dwellings. All have potential impact on investors, for whom emerging Coronaviruses and political divorce could be the less dramatic.
First and foremost is the new foreign buyers' surcharge on properties in England and Northern Ireland, set for 2%, effective April 2021. That's a drop in the bucket compared with up to 20% in Australia and Canada (and 30% right here in Hong Kong) but it's another shock for the UK. But the controversial 2014 stamp duty amendment did pour over £9 million into the UK'S public coffers in 2018, even as critics claimed it stifled the market.
In addition to that, the capital gains tax allowance—the amount in increased value that can be tax-free—has been raised to £12,300, alongside allowances on inheritance taxes, whose complicated calculation can mean exemptions of up to £1 million. Investors who buy with children in mind will take note.
The new surcharge is likely to impact London more than any other single market, particularly at the top end of the market, where the additional levy could bring stamp duties to 17% and flatten the “Boris bounce.” The 2021 start date could also create a buying frenzy ahead of the deadline—as the revised duties did in 2016. It's already been called an “unwelcome bloody nose” for the market, with Rokstone Properties Director Becky Fatemi telling London's Evening Standard,
“The increase will just serve to suppress sales volumes in what is a fragile property market in a fragile wider economy.”
Both the UK and premium London property markets had bottomed out, and that the market was correcting— a trend predating both COVID-19 and Brexit.英國與倫敦豪宅市場已走出谷底，並出現調整，而此趨勢早於肺炎及脫歐出現。