眼花撩亂 是否有所謂的租戶市場？如果有的話，又會是怎樣？ Is there such a thing as a tenants' market, and if so, is this what it looks like?
是否有所謂的租戶市場？如果有的話，又會是怎樣？ Is there such a thing as a tenants’ market, and if so, is this what it looks like?
撇開健康因素，新型冠狀病毒對就業的影響成為主要話題；全球最活躍的投資及自用物業市場，於三月時突然煞停，要準確預測今年市場的走勢確實無從入手。
不少人居家抗炎，部分機構停工或在家工作，令樓宇買賣成交宗數明顯減少（即使透過虛擬科技睇樓人次日漸增加），但價格沒有大跌，亦沒有湧現大量急於把物業出售的賣家。香港金管局及銀行業界打造一個負債少、流通性高的市場，業主們可暫時擺脫目前危機。
不過，租務市場的起跌一向是個謎，不論何等物業，其租金似是起跌不定。住宅物業租約短，租金每年上升（這是頗荒謬的事），令香港租戶成為全球最高流動性的一群。究竟現時租務市場處於怎樣的情況？
可收取的租金？仲量聯行大中華區研究部主管黃志輝在4月
時表示：「如果失業率上升，準買家退縮而導致物業需求大跌」，市場會如何呢？在去年社會活動期間，樓價保持穩定，市場幾乎沒有出現波動，但新冠病毒是不一樣的洪水猛獸。
一位西營盤物業代理表示：「人們經常將目前情況與沙士時比較，但兩者所受到的外圍影響不同。在2003年，市場周期正處
於谷底，樓價下跌，但租金合理；今次市場勢頭強勁，樓價已上升至少200%，租務
市場需求仍然強大。去年大型社會活動其實影響輕微，但病毒的影響卻很大。」
Coronavirus and how it will impact jobs— never mind health—seems to be the topic of conversation almost everywhere right now. The world's most robust property markets for both investment and end-use, came to a screeching halt in March, making it nearly impossible to guess with any degree of accuracy where they're heading for the rest of the year.
Aside from the obvious slowdown in transactions due to all manner of inactivity (though virtual viewings are on the rise), prices are not plunging and distressed sellers are not materialising in massive numbers. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the banks have created a liquid property market with little debt in it, and so current owners are in a position to ride out a temporary crisis.
But the rental market has always been a curiosity, with monthly rental rates going up or down seemingly at random, no matter where on the scale prices are. Residential tenants have short leases and expect (often ridiculous) rent hikes each year, giving the SAR one of the world's most mobile tenant pools. Where is that rental market sitting now?
Attainable Rents?
If, “Higher unemployment will likely erode housing demand as some prospective buyers retreat,” as Nelson Wong, Head of Research at JLL in Greater China suggested in April, where is it they're going? Prices proved resilient during last year's protests, the market barely budged, but COVID-19 is a very different beast.
租金下滑、回報低，投資者及業主普遍認為出租物業並非其投資主因。For investors and landlords, slipping rents and low rental yields are rarely the reason to invest in the first place.
投資者及業主普遍認為，租金回報低（在2019年約為2至2.4%），加上租金於去年
底開始下滑，所以出租物業並非他們的投資主因。根據差餉物業估價署的資料，去年的豪宅租金（ 1 , 700平方呎以上）較2018年下調13.1%，是跌幅最大的物業類型，只有中型單（400至750平方呎）錄得少許升幅，去年平均呎租約為39港元（港島區）、31.5港元（九龍區）及25港元（新界區）；這些數字於今年2月份再下跌2.5%（港島區）及0.8%（新界區）。據中原地產統計，3及4月整體租金下調4.2%。
“People want to compare this to SARS, but the surrounding circumstances are quite different,” said a Sai Ying Pun property agent who wished to remain anonymous. “In 2003 the market was at a low point in the cycle, prices had dropped and rents were reasonable. This time the market was much stronger, prices have risen 200% or so since then and rental demand is still there. Then came the protests last year—which had a minor impact—and now this, which is much, much more significant.”
For investors and landlords, rental yields— which at the end of 2019 hovered between 2 and 2.4%—have always been low, and rarely the reason to invest in the first place. In addition, rents were slipping at the end of last year. According to the Ratings and Valuation Department, rents in the luxury sector (flats 1,700 square feet and above) were down 13.1% over 2018, the biggest drop in all sectors, with only popular medium-sized units (category B flats, 400 to 750 square feet) posting a modest gain. Those flats finished the year averaging approximately HK$39, HK$31.50 and HK$25 per square foot per month in Hong Kong, Kowloon and the New Territories respectively. By February those figures had dropped a shade over 2.5% on Hong Kong and a sliver (0.8%) in the New Territories. Data from Centaline Property Agency states March and April rents fell a further 4.2% overall.高力國際住宅服務部主管Letizia Garcia Casalino說：「雖然租務價格下調，但黃金地段的租金卻沒有人們所期望的大跌幅；不是所有物業的租金會被調整，幅度亦有所不同。」Letizia指新界及港島東的租金跌幅最大，以美聯物業最近一個太古城出租單位為例，4月份所簽的租約，其月租為25,000港元，較上一張租約的32,000港元為低。西營盤的物業代理表示：「業主在未來的日子，要於減租或空置單位二選其一，而後者則完全沒有租金收入。」
“Although rents are adjusting towards a decline, the general market within prime locations isn't seeing the needle lean towards the big drop everyone is hoping for,” adds Letizia Garcia Casalino, head of residential services at Colliers International. “Rents are and will be adjusted but not as a generality across the board and at the same percentage.” Garcia Casalino points to the New Territories and Island East for the largest rental drops. Midland Realty cites a recent rental transaction in Taikoo Shing as an indicator: an April lease agreement clocked in at HK$25,500 per month—down from the previous lease of HK$32,000. As the Sai Ying Pun agent argues, “For the near future, landlords will have to choose between less rent, or no tenant and no rent at all.”
收入擔憂
Habitat Property常務董事victoria Allan承認租務市場漸趨活躍，由低位開始攀升：「市場較去年同期淡靜、租金下滑，有人因此得益，亦有人在短時間內因工作前景、地點變得不明朗，反而更怕搬遷；我們亦看到許多人離開香港。」
全球企業收緊開支，減少海外到港工作員工，租務需求亦因而降低。2019年的社會活動令租金下調約10%；新冠病毒令香港停課，外籍居民紛紛離港，再使租金下調10%，但Letizia認為租金不會大瀉：「半山
區、山頂及南區等優越地段未必需要（跟隨其他地區）減租，因這些地區仍是求過於供，租務潛力十分強勁。」
就目前而言，在過去六個星期的每天都有轉變，租客有可能會就現有租約與業主洽商（在商廈市場十分普遍），西營盤的物業代理表示：「若想維持物業出租狀態，聰明的業主應要接受有關損失。」Vctoria亦贊成：「現時更不應失去現有租客。」
Income Fears
Regardless of the numbers, Habitat Property Managing Director Victoria Allan admits that leasing activity has been creeping up despite starting at a low base. “The market is a lot slower than normal for this time of the year, and we have seen rents fall. Some people are taking advantage of that, but just as many are afraid to move because suddenly there's job uncertainty—and location uncertainty. We have seen a lot of people leave Hong Kong.”
Businesses worldwide are tightening their belts, and in the wake of a growing trend where fewer overseas executives enter Hong Kong demand is drifting down. The broad 2019 protests pushed rents down roughly 10%, and COVID-19 hitting when schools were out of session inspired foreign nationals to simply leave, pushing rents down another 10%. But Garcia Casalino doesn't see collapse just yet. “Prime areas such as Mid-levels, The Peak and South Side aren't necessarily accommodating the same reductions [as other districts]. The demand is still higher than the offer, and the holding power is still strong.”
As things stand—and bearing in mind circumstances have changed almost every day for six weeks—tenants are more likely to renegotiate existing leases (common in the commercial sector right now), and “Smart landlords are likely to accept the loss if they want to maintain occupancy,” theorised the Sai Ying Pun agent. “Now is not the time to risk losing a sure thing,” Allan agrees.
“I am still positive about the market overall and the ability of the city to bounce back. But this has had such an impact on global economies it's not going to be fast. It's going to take longer this time. It's a global problem.”