內地出招刺激經濟助穩定樓市China's Stimulative Measures to Stabilise Property Market Expectations

內地出招刺激經濟 助穩定樓市

受中美貿易戰影響，加上新冠肺炎疫情拖累，中國經濟受到嚴重打擊。中國今年首季經濟增長，預期急促放緩到3至3.5%，

除了2月PMI急降至35. 7 ，房地產開發投資、新住房面積和房地產開發商獲得的資金，均受影響。根據國家統計局的資料，2020年首兩個月的房地投資10,115億元（人民幣，下同），同比下降16.3%，其中中部地區的下降最明顯，達25.9%；商品房銷售總面積為8,475萬平方米，同比下降39.9%。至於首兩個月的住宅平均單價為每平方米9,611元，同比增7.4%；商品房銷售額為8,203億元人民幣，下降35.9%。

美國聯儲局在三月兩度降息，合共將息率降低150個基點至零息，給予中國進一步

降息空間，以刺激經濟。雖然海南省首季已宣佈禁售樓花逆操作，以管理市場秩序，首季樓市調控政策在一線城市內仍相對穩定。

房策方面，由於中央多次表明，樓房是用來住，不是用來炒，預料放寬目前房策（包括限貸限購）的可能性較低；海南三月初開始禁售樓花，亦意味房策於這嚴竣的經濟環境下，俱備從嚴的可能。由於中央防疫工作於首季初見成效，預期次季焦點將落在穩定經濟，刺激經濟方案可大致分為兩類：一是人行推行貨幣寬鬆政策；二是增大基建投放財政的力度和速度。人行當前的貨幣政策，不外乎是降息降準，如果息率持續向下，意味內地貸款息率漸漸下降，刺激銀行貸款業務，當中包括後續的房地產成交量。

美國聯儲局減息使全球多國推行寬鬆政策，也讓內地政府有更多空間推行寬鬆政策。在如此環境下，預期內房企業較容易發債及再融資，但受當前房地產政策所影響，房價波幅確實有限。值得一提的是，若第二季中國經濟增長持續低迷，相信中央會繼續增大基建投放財政政策，有助穩定內地房地產市場。繼首季經濟刺激方案，預期次季內地經濟增長可望回升至增長5%，而全年基建投資增速在10%

左右。

Affected by the Sino-us trade war and the outbreak of COVID-19, China's economy has suffered a severe blow, its economic growth is expected to drop between 3 to 3.5% in the first quarter of this year. In addition to the first two months’ PMI exceeding 35.7, real estate development investment was also below market expectations. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first two months of 2020, real estate investment totalled 1,011.5 billion; a decrease of 16.3%, of which the central region’s investment fell the most significantly, reaching 25.9%. The total sales area was 84.75 million square metres, a year-on-year decrease of 39.9%. The average unit price of residential buildings in the first two months of 2020 was RMB9,611 per square metre, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%; the floor space of commercial buildings was RMB828.3 billion, a decrease of 35.9%.

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in March, reducing the interest rate by 150 basis points to zero in total, expanding China's room for further interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. Although Hainan Province announced a ban on the sale of uncompleted properties in the first quarter to control the order of the property market, the government policies in the first quarter remained relatively stable among first-tier cities.

In terms of property market policies in the Mainland, since the central government has repeatedly stated that buildings are to be used for living instead of speculation, it is expected that the current property market policies (including restrictions on loans and purchases) are unlikely to loosen. Hainan announced to ban the sale of uncompleted flats in early March, suggesting the country’s housing policies could still be strict despite the current severe economic environment. Since the central government’s epidemic prevention work has achieved initial outcomes by the first quarter, the focus of the second quarter will be on stabilising the economy. These economic stimulus programmes can be roughly divided into two categories: one is the implementation of loose monetary policy by the People's Bank of China; and the other is the increase of the intensity and speed of fiscal measures for infrastructure investment in the Mainland. The People's Bank's current monetary policy is nothing more than cutting interest rates and required reserve ratio. If the interest rate continues to fall, it implies that the interest rate on the country’s mortgages could gradually decrease, which could stimulate financing businesses, including the subsequent real estate transaction volume.

In recent months, the US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, allowing many countries around the world to implement easing policies, while offering more room for easing policies in China. Additionally, in a policy-easing environment, it is expected that domestic housing will be more prone to debt issuance and refinancing. However, influenced by the current real estate policy, the fluctuation of house prices is indeed limited. It is worth mentioning that if the central government of China would continue to increase fiscal policies for infrastructure investment, should the economic growth continue to be sluggish in the second quarter, it could help stablise the property market’s expectations. Following the economic stimulus package in the first quarter, it is expected that the Mainland’s economic growth will pick up to 5% in the second quarter, while the growth rate of infrastructure investment for the whole year will be around 10%.