本港樓市仍存樂觀徵兆 Hong Kong's Housing Market Stifled by Coronavirus and Local Social Unrest

本港樓市仍存樂觀徵兆

The Signs of Market Optimism

With the Coronavirus taking centerstage in everyone’s lives in Hong Kong and around the world and coming on the heels of last year’s widespread social unrest throughout the territory, the city’s local real estate market in 2020 has been decimated—or so some industry pundits have been saying. Yet, despite the dire warnings about an imminent housing collapse that would seem to scare people away from buying new homes, the reality on the ground reveals signs pointing to the contrary.

First-hand Property Transactions During the Outbreak of Coronavirus

In early March, Wheelock Properties announced the sale of 189 of 208 flats, (90%) on offer at their Ocean Marini project in Tseung Kwan O, resulting in purchases totalling close to HK$1.59 billion. This sale was no doubt given a strong boost due to attractive discounted prices and buyers’ anticipation of lowered interest rates in Hong Kong. And while it certainly shouldn’t be seen as a definitive indicator of an imminent recovery, it does indicate that cash-holding individuals exist in the market and have the confidence to invest. Wheelock’s second batch of sales, a few weekends later, had only slightly less success (80% sellout), though this was largely attributed to a significant spike in virus cases at that time, leading many interested buyers to remain at home.

Other property companies have had similar successes recently. The Richmond, a 90-unit Mid-levels project from Henderson Land Development, was launched onto the market on January 21st this year. All 45 units offered thus far were quickly sold, indicating that despite the protests, there was still strong demand for new, smaller units in Mid-levels. Flat sizes ranged from 206 to 300 square feet and the units were sold between HK$6.3 million and HK$9.7 million.

Market Forecast: Will the Coronavirus Affect Hong Kong’s Property Prices?

Low interest rates remain a significant consideration in buyers’ minds, since it makes home ownership more affordable and more attractive than renting over time. With average sales prices having only fallen ~7% since the onset of the protests (as of February 2020 data), this points to a general resiliency and confidence in the long-term outlook. In addition, the US Federal Reserve’s recent move to cut interest rates to near zero percent coupled with the reset of HIBOR to around 1.73% (as of March 19) will no doubt tempt potential homebuyers, even against gloomy macro-economic circumstances. This relative stability in prices is despite of the volume of buyers having dropped meaningfully since the protests began, with there being ~50% fewer monthly transactions of late. In other words, sellers have remained confident enough to not panic-sell, which would have led to much steeper price declines.

In terms of rentals, although many tenants are seeking steep discounts in this post-virus market, landlords (like sellers) are not panicking either. Rental prices have fallen ~8% since the protests started despite many prospective tenants initially thinking they can find properties at 30-40% discounts to what they were a few months ago. Significant fears relating to the virus does not directly translate to prices falling significantly. In fact, if fewer people are willing to buy, this naturally increases the net number of renters, partially offsetting reduced housing budgets or the (small) number of people fleeing Hong Kong. The reality is that prices are a result of supply and demand. Supply has not changed, and demand may have softened in some pockets, but buyers willing to invest at or near current prices remain in the market. While these latest developments are hardly a bellwether marking the return of a thriving real estate market, they do, however, point to there being some optimists in the market. In past economic downturns, this pent-up demand has quickly stepped in as prices fell, leading to a smaller-thanexpected drop in real estate prices, and a swift recovery.

Personally, I am quite concerned about the US economy and a potential cascade of debt defaults leading to a recession. Higher interest rates, unemployment and inflation are all possible outcomes and these would have a huge impact globally, including in Hong Kong. But these are not certainties, and my opinion is of limited value. It’s the market’s opinion that matters and there are those who remain cautiously optimistic (for now), despite the fears around the virus.

新冠肺炎疫情影響香港及各地市民生活，加上去年本港一連串社會事件，地產專家預測，本港2020年的樓市走勢將偏向負面。然而，

儘管樓市下跌消息看似減低市民置業意慾，實際情況或會跟預期相反。

疫情下的一手樓市成交

三月初，會德豐旗下將軍澳新盤、日出康城Ocean Marini進行首輪開售，成功賣出208伙當中的九成單位（189伙），總金額達15.9億

港元。發展商提供的優惠價，以及買家對減息的渴望，為樓市打下強心針。雖然這不應被視為樓市即將復甦的指標，但反映市場存在不少人持有大量流動現金，並對投資物業仍具有相當程度的信心。即使及後疫情反覆，導致不少準買家留在家中避疫，Ocean Marini在數星期後的次輪銷售，仍能售出約八成單位。

其他發展商在今年首季也取得類似成功， 地於年初推出的The Richmond，在首輪及次輪銷售中迅速沽清共45伙，其面積介乎206至300平方呎，售價由630萬至970萬港元。在社會運

動持續的情況下，反映買家對半山區一手細單位的需求仍然很大。

預測—疫情會影響樓價嗎？

低利率是買家入市的其中考慮因素，相比長期租樓，在低利率環境下置業可降低每月負擔，有一定吸引力。自社會運動以來，平均樓價僅下降約7%（截至2020年2月），反映市場對2020年的樓市走勢仍具備信心。此外，雖然宏

觀經濟不景氣，美國聯儲局最近減息至近零利率，再將H按息率重新設定為約1.73%（截至3月19日），無疑吸引潛在買家置業。儘管樓市

成交量近一年來大幅下降，最近更每月減半，樓價仍相對穩定，顯示賣家對樓市有信心，沒有作出恐慌性拋售，否則將導致樓價大跌。

租務方面，雖然許多租客嘗試在疫情下尋求折扣，但市場並沒有出現大幅減租的情況。自社會運動以來，許多潛在租客認為能以低三至四成的價錢找到心儀單位，但數據顯示，現時租金價格只跌約8%，可見大眾對疫情的憂慮，

並沒直接反映在租值變動上。事實上，若有意置業的人減少，租戶人數自然增加，局部抵銷下調置業預算和人口遷出所引致的問題。

樓市價格取決於供求，當供應沒有變化，需求可能減少，仍會有買家願意以現價、或接近現價進行投資。雖然上述發展項目的成功，未必代表交投將恢復暢旺，但卻顯示市場仍存在對樓市前景樂觀的人。從過往經驗看，每當樓價下跌，就會釋出被壓抑的需求，並迅速入市，令樓價跌幅小於預期，然後復甦。

另外，筆者亦擔心美國潛在的一系列債務違約將導致經濟衰退，令利率、失業率上升，以及通貨膨脹等一連串後果，對全球經濟產生巨大影響。然而，以上推測仍存不確定性，筆者的觀點純屬個人看法，即使疫情令人產生憂慮，但亦有不少人對市場抱謹慎樂觀的態度，可見整體市場氣氛才是最關鍵的一環。