Taming the AI Bull
This issue of Agrospectrum will be an endeavour in foretelling what Indian agriculture will be like in 2030. While we don’t exactly have a Crystal Ball, we have expert writers who will paint a pretty good picture of what is to come. When one considers the farm operations 10 years ahead from now, it is essential to understand the role Artificial Intelligence (AI) is likely to play in agriculture. Several market reports indicate an increasing upsurge in deployment of AI in agriculture the world over.
Markets & Markets has predicted that expenditure on AI technologies and solutions in agri will grow from $1 billion in 2020 at a very high Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 25.5 per cent, to $4 billion by 2026. Pricewaterhousecoopers (PWC) has predicted that Internet of Things (IOT) enabled agricultural monitoring is the fastestgrowing technology segment projected to reach
$4.5 billion by 2025. It is estimated that by 2050, the global population will increase by 2 billion, increasing the food demand by 60 to 70 per cent. Thus, the agriculture of the near future will have two important tasks, enhancing the quantity and quality. Such a giant leap in food grain production is possible only with the help of precise data of various agriculture related factors – from land to rainfall and widespread mechanisation of farming activities. This is most essential in order to avoid wastage caused by failure of crops due to unseasonal rains or any other sudden unseasonal extreme changes in the weather. Climate change has already added and will continue to add severely to these weather-related challenges. But that would not be affordable when enormous quantities of food grains are needed.
Such challenges could be addressed effectively with technologies like AI and Machine Learning (ML). Besides the precise weather forecast, AI can aid in pest control, soil and crop health monitoring, and improving a host of other tasks, including water management, crop rotation, timely harvesting, optimum planting, and logistics of inputs and marketing of products.
Different companies have developed various Ai-based applications to do soil analysis and identify the nutrient deficiencies in soil, guiding farmers on which fertilisers to be used for improving quality of the farm produce and soil restoration. AI, ML and the IOT together, will be helpful in minimising the impact of climate change and other factors. They can process data in real time creating a knowledge bank for farmers to improve agri efficiencies and yields. The Government of India had signed a MOU with IBM in 2019 to deploy AI in farming and IBM had started some pilot studies also. Despite the great benefits, when it comes to adopting AI in agriculture in India, one will have to be very cautious. It is not that we don’t want more food grains, improved quality or our farmers to be equipped with more information and knowledge that will help them.
Till AI provides information to farmers on various parameters as per its great potential, it is fine. However, one of the applications of AI is agri-robots. Robots will work faster and with precision, but eventually, they might replace labourers. In India, about 60 per cent of the population is directly or indirectly dependent upon agriculture. Most of them are unskilled in other areas like industry. Robots will surely take away their only source of income. Sharad Pawar, in his capacity as minister of agriculture in 2007, had stressed the need for fewer people depending upon agriculture, as more number of people are dependent on fragmented pieces of land. Robots in agriculture will make this happen. But, the question remains, how will those dependent on agriculture earn their livelihood? Thus, introducing AI in agriculture will have to be a very cautious process. The government will have to carefully assess which areas of AI will be beneficial without affecting job generation. While Ai-enabled tech and robots could become the next big game changer in agriculture, countless workers and families would have to face unemployment and penury.