Next frontiers of KNOWLEDGE TO DEFINE Agriculture of the future

Agriculture is an important sector of the Indian economy. Covering 11.24 per cent of the world’s arable land area and 4 percent of the world’s renewable water resources, India produces sufficient food, feed and fibre to sustain about 18 per cent (1.38 billion) of the world’s population (as of 2020). Over the last few decades (1980/81-2019/20), the sector has registered an average annual growth of 3.2 per cent – almost double the population growth of 1.7 per cent per annum during the same period. As a result, it has turned India from a food deficit country to one with a net trade surplus of 3.7 per cent of agri-gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018-19. Agriculture contributes about 16.5 percent to the country’s overall GDP, and employs nearly 42.3 per cent of the country’s workforce (2019/-20), with an average holding size of just 1.08 hectares (2015/16).

According to the working group report by NITI Aayog, 2018, India will have sufficient supply of food grains towards 2032/33 and beyond. However, there will be a marginal deficit of around 5-7 million tonnes of pulses and coarse cereals. In addition, given that the indirect demand of coarse grains as feed for the growing livestock and poultry sector is likely to increase at a rapid pace, chronic shortage of feed and fodder is also expected. Moreover, in the case of oilseeds, the situation looks grim as the country is going to face a massive deficit of around 40 million tonnes. In other commodities such as milk, meat, fruits and vegetables, there appears to be a reasonable balance between demand and supply in the years to come.

Agriculture in India has witnessed an

impressive growth trajectory, taking the country from a food deficit one during the 1960s to a marginally food surplus one. With food grain production at 292 MMT in 2019/20, India has not only emerged as the largest exporter of rice, but also a net exporter of agriculture produce. This breakthrough transformation has been the result of rapid development and adoption of modern technologies, investment, infrastructure (including irrigation, markets and roads) and institutions (land, water, mechanisation, extension services and agricultural credit). Notwithstanding the economic success, the sector today is at a crossroads with numerous opportunities as well as concerns.

On the one hand, the sector has grown and diversified, while, on the other, its contribution to the overall GDP has declined to 16.5 per cent even as it still employs almost 42.3 per cent of the total workforce. Moreover, despite India having achieved food sufficiency in agricultural production, there are still 176 million people living under the poverty level and over 194.4 million are undernourished. Furthermore, a growing population and the pressure of urbanisation is squeezing agricultural land for cultivation and affecting the quality of soil and air as well as quantity of water.

In order to meet these emerging challenges and to formulate food and agricultural policies,

Dr Ashok Gulati, Infosys Chair Professor for Agriculture, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) and Ritika Juneja, Consultant, ICRIER in a paper presented on 'Transforming Indian Agriculture' at the 'INDIAN AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030' pointed out that it is important to focus on the role of 3 Is - Innovations, Incentives and Institutions that could help to produce more, diversified and nutritious food economically, and in an environmentally and financially sustainable way. Some of these potential innovations are already on the table, ready to be scaled up for higher efficiency, while others are unfolding.

Innovations: The major innovations in production technologies that can significantly impact overall productivity and production in India include - Climate resilient seeds and Protected and sustainable agriculture.

Incentives: Policies play a key role in shaping the incentive structure for farmers.

These incentives not only contribute to economic development but also encourage farmers to adopt new technology and augment production. Direct income/cash transfer and Incentive for water and energy conservation are among the innovative policy examples.

Institutions: Representing the ‘rules of the game’, institutions enable a given system to function. For innovations in technologies

and incentives to be effective, a sector needs a supportive and enabling institutional environment. These institutions govern the access of key inputs and help in the development of a profitable and sustainable agriculture. The government plays an important role in setting up formal institutions, including agriculturerelated laws and regulations, international trade agreements, food quality standards, and land and water property rights. Innovation in institutions are required for farmers to have better access and manage agricultural land, water, extension services and mechanisation at different stages of crop development and in a manner that is efficient, transparent, inclusive and sustainable.

Last but not the least, the national network of agricultural extension plays a critical role in enabling a system of sharing knowledge, information, technology, policy and farm management practices all along the value chain, in order to enable farmers to realise a remunerative income on a sustainable basis. As smallholders already face numerous and widely varying challenges, it is essential that they have access to timely, reliable, and relevant information and advice. This requires an efficient agricultural extension system that goes beyond the theoretical scope of technology transfer, into the space of practical application and impact evaluation. Geo-tagging of farms, digitalisation of agri-value chains, big data analytics, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and Machine Learning in agriculture are the next frontiers of knowledge to drive agriculture into a new trajectory. Extension work has to be ready to take all these technologies from start-ups and pilots to farmers’ fields for scaling up.

As we are approaching 2030, Agrospectrum, as a leading B2B media platform in the agricultural space, spoke to the leading industry leaders from fertilisers, agrochemicals, farm mechanisation, precision farming, agritech, poultry, dairy, and covering their views on “Agriculture & Allied sectors in 2030” in the coming pages.