Breakthrough resilient crops
Climate change is, unfortunately, a reality. Abnormal climate patterns like frequent low-pressure areas, cyclones, severe rainfalls, extended monsoon period, shifting of seasons and very high temperatures in relatively cooler areas, among others, have been reported in the last several years.
On the upside, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently launched 35 crop varieties with special traits to address the twin challenges of climate change and malnutrition. These crops, developed by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), have been tweaked for climate resilience and to provide higher nutritional values.
One of the major areas of the adverse impact of climate change will be on agriculture. Rising global temperatures, drier weather and heavy rainfalls caused by climate change would affect agriculture activity, practices and field. The more serious issue is that this would be happening when the country’s demand for food would be rising due to the growing population. This challenge can be summarised by just one fact that India’s current population is almost 18 per cent of the world population and yet the country has only 2.5 per cent of the global land. The land area will remain the same but the population is going to increase to become the most populous country in the world by 2027.
The severity of the challenge is understood further by the fact that the predicted rise in temperature of 1 to 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2030 is likely to show serious effects on crop yields.
Just 1.5 degree Celsius rise and 2 mm reduction in precipitation can reduce the yield by 3 to 15 per cent. Experts feel that the rise in temperature may reduce crop duration, escalate crop respiration rates and influence pest population. In addition, it may accelerate nutrient mineralisation, hamper the efficacy of fertilisers and hasten evapotranspiration in soil. In its study, the ICAR has already observed that, in some states, farming consumes 30 per cent more water now due to high evaporative demand and crop duration caused by forced maturity.
Climate change might reduce annual agricultural income from 15 to 18 per cent, and in unirrigated areas 20 to 25 per cent. The ICAR predicted a reduction in agricultural yields by 4.5 to 9 per cent till 2040. As agriculture contributes 16 to 20 per cent to India’s GDP, this reduction will lead to about 1.5 per cent reduction in GDP per year.
The ICAR’S success in developing 35 crop varieties with an ability to withstand the climate change challenge and provide more nutrition on the backdrop of such a bleak picture is monumental for the future of Indian agriculture.
However, an important challenge awaits the government - convincing the farmers to adopt these new crops. A global research published in Nature Plants in October 2020, found that the most important determinants of adoption of climate resilient crops is availability of and effectiveness of extension services and outreach. This is possible by access to inputs. About 53 per cent of studies reported that social differences like sex, age, marital status and ethnicity affected the adoption of crop varieties as climate change adaption strategies. In India, such social differences are even more firm. But, luckily we have a strong network of agriculture universities. The government will have to initiate several simultaneous steps to ensure that farmers have access to seeds, to educate farmers about the benefits of these crops. We already have experience with GM crops in such matters. The government will have to be proactive before some vested interests unleash a nasty propaganda, creating confusion in the minds of the people.
The confusion and subsequent protests against the Farm Laws are a case in point. Instead of being on the back foot, issuing clarifications as an afterthought, the government must take the bull by the horns and commence an all-out awareness campaign about these breakthrough resilient crops.