SPACE COLONIZATION: EXPLORING THE FUTURE

Space colonization has long been the subject of science fi ction novels and movies, but in recent years it has moved from the realm of fantasy to that of science. As the human population continues to grow and the earth's resources continue to be depleted, many people are looking to space as a potential solution. In this article, we will explore the potential benefi ts and challenges of space colonization, as well as the current efforts to make it a reality.

Benefi ts of Space Colonization

One of the main benefi ts of space colonization is that it could provide a new home for humans. As the earth's population continues to grow, fi nding new sources of resources and living space becomes increasingly important. By colonizing other planets, humans could spread out and reduce the pressure on the earth's resources.

In addition to providing a new home, space colonization could also lead to important scientifi c discoveries. The study of other planets and moons could help us better understand our own planet and the universe as a whole. By studying the geology, atmosphere, and biology of other celestial bodies, we could learn more about the origins of life and the conditions necessary for life to exist.

Another benefi t of space colonization is that it could lead to the development of new technologies. The challenges of living and working in space would require us to create new systems for transportation, energy generation, and waste management. These systems could have practical applications back on earth, leading to important advancements in fi elds like environmental science, engineering, and robotics.

Challenges of Space Colonization

While the benefi ts of space colonization are signifi cant, there are also many challenges that would need to be overcome in order to make it a reality. One of the biggest challenges is simply getting there. The cost of space travel is currently prohibitively expensive, making it diffi cult to send large numbers of people and supplies to other planets.

Once we arrive at our destination, we would need to create a habitable environment. This would require the development of new technologies for things like energy generation, food production, and waste management. We would also need to create systems for maintaining a breathable atmosphere, protecting ourselves from radiation, and mitigating the effects of low gravity.

Another challenge of space colonization is the potential environmental impact of human activities. It is important that we take steps to ensure that our presence in space does not have a negative impact on the natural environment. This will require the development of sustainable technologies and careful management of our waste and pollution.

Eff orts to Colonize Space

Despite these challenges, there are already a number of organizations and companies working to make space colonization a reality. One of the most ambitious plans comes from Spacex, a private space exploration company founded by Elon Musk. Spacex's goal is to create a self- sustaining city on Mars, capable of supporting up to one million people.

To achieve this goal, Spacex is developing a suite of technologies to make space travel and colonization more affordable and accessible. This includes reusable rockets that can drastically reduce the cost of space travel, as well as plans for a self- sustaining settlement on Mars. The company has already conducted successful test fl ights of its reusable rockets and has plans to send an unmanned mission to Mars as early as 2022.

NASA is also working to develop the technologies necessary for space colonization. The agency's Artemis program aims to send humans back to the moon by 2024 and establish a permanent lunar presence in the years that follow. The goal of the program is to create a sustainable base on the moon that can serve as a launching point for further exploration and colonization.

In addition to these larger efforts, there are also a number of smallerscale initiatives aimed at making space colonization more accessible. These include private organizations like Mars One, which aims to establish a permanent settlement on Mars using existing technologies, and The Living, an architectural fi rm that is developing sustainable living spaces for use in space.

Abstract

Space colonization is humankind's best bet for long- term survival. This makes the expected moral value of space colonization immense. However, colonizing space also creates risks — risks whose potential harm could easily overshadow all the benefi ts of humankind's long- term future. In this article, I present a preliminary overview of some major risks of space colonization: Prioritization risks, aberration risks, and confl ict risks. Each of these risk types contains risks that can create enormous disvalue; in some cases orders of magnitude more disvalue than all the potential positive value humankind could have. From a ( weakly) negative, suffering- focused utilitarian view, we therefore have the obligation to mitigate space colonization- related risks and make space colonization as safe as possible. In order to do so, we need to start working on realworld space colonization governance. Given the near total lack of progress in the domain of space governance in recent decades, however, it is uncertain whether meaningful space colonization governance can be established in the near future, and before it is too late.

Section Snippets

Space colonization, the establishment of permanent human habitats beyond Earth, has been the object of both popular speculation and scientifi c inquiry for decades. The idea of space colonization has an almost poetic quality: Space is the next great frontier, the next great leap for humankind, that we hope to eventually conquer through our force of will and our ingenuity. From a more prosaic point of view, space colonization is important because it represents a long- term survival strategy for

Conceptualizing Space ColonizationRelated Risks

Pursuing and engaging in space colonization activities creates a myriad of risks. For example, there would almost certainly be fatal accidents similar to the Challenger disaster of 1986 and the Columbia disaster of 2003; there would almost certainly be smaller workplacerelated accidents like broken legs and arms; there would almost certainly be workplace- related issues such as sexual harassment or mobbing or burnout; there would almost certainly be people who are deeply saddened or offended by

Prioritization Risks

Prioritization risks arise because the moral goal of colonizing space — creating positive expected future value — can be better achieved by addressing existing risks instead of pursuing space colonization. Delaying space colonization in favor of mitigating existing risks can result in a signifi cantly better longterm future. The specifi c prioritization risks that I discuss in the subsections below are depicted in Fig. 3,

Aberration Risks

Aberration risks are risks inadvertently created by space colonization. They are entirely new risks without precedents in human history, and they expand the moral circle of concern ( far) beyond humankind. The disvalue that they can create is potentially orders of magnitude greater than the positive value of humankind's future. Fig. 4 is a summary of the specifi c aberration risks that I focus on.

I discuss four specifi c aberration risks in the subsections that follow; all four of them are

Confl ict Risks

Confl ict risks are risks that are created by the prospect of hostile actors or powers in the context of space colonization. Confl ict risks are in principle not unlike confl icts that humankind has experienced throughout its Earth- based history, but they are much greater in scope and severity. The four confl ict risks I focus on are depicted in Fig. 5.

Is Space Colonization Desirable in Light of its Risks?

In the previous sections, I have outlined some prioritization, aberration and confl ict risks that could create enormous disvalue — potentially many times greater than the total positive future expected value of humankind. In light of such risks, we have to ask whether space colonization is desirable at all. The answer to this question depends on the moral framework we use to answer it.

With our rising planet’s population competing for space and resources, some people are convinced we need to look beyond Earth to help ensure humanity’s survival. As Elon Musk, the entrepreneur behind space tourism company Spacex put it recently: “I think there is a strong argument for making life multi- planetary in order to safeguard the existence of humanity in the event that something catastrophic were to happen.”

Even if you don’t believe this bleak vision, it’s hard to ignore the eternal human instinct to discover the undiscovered – an urge that could push people beyond the safety of our planet. And there might not be as many hurdles as you might think. “We are at the level of technology where we can imagine leaving the planet for a few nearby places in our Solar System,” former astronaut Jeffrey Hoffman, who will present his ideas at our summit, told BBC Future previously. “The Moon is just around the corner, and Mars isn’t that far away. We have the possibility of at least making the fi rst steps of those voyages in our own lifetimes.”

One possible idea goes as far back as the 1920s. Austro- Hungarian rocket pioneer Herman Poto nik imagined a circular spacecraft - rather like a fl ying saucer – that rotates to create artifi cial gravity while a large, concave mirror could focus sunlight for an energy source. As far- fetched as this may sound, the idea has lingered over the years – most notably in the mid- 1970s by the late Princeton physicist Gerard O’neill, and again by the space think tank British Interplanetary Society. Before you dismiss the idea of fl oating colonies completely, it’s worth noting that the British Interplanetary Society predicted we would reach the Moon three decades before it actually happened.

One possible idea goes as far back as the 1920s. Austro- Hungarian rocket pioneer Herman Poto nik imagined a circular spacecraft - rather like a fl ying saucer – that rotates to create artifi cial gravity while a large, concave mirror could focus sunlight for an energy source. As far- fetched as this may sound, the idea has lingered over the years – most notably in the mid- 1970s by the late Princeton physicist Gerard O’neill, and again by the space think tank British Interplanetary Society. Before you dismiss the idea of fl oating colonies completely, it’s worth noting that the British Interplanetary Society predicted we would reach the Moon three decades before it actually happened.

Other experts favour the idea of setting up home on fi rmer ground – a planet or moon – creating an artifi cial “biosphere” with all the necessary elements for human life to thrive. Mars has become a main focus of attention, and astonishingly, people are already trying to make steps to set- up a new civilisation there by 2025. The Dutch project, called Mars One, was launched in 2012 and it has already vetted 40 applicants from a pool of 200,000. They should now receive training as part of a reality TV show that is helping to fund the project. Needless to say, Mars One has its detractors – but it does at least show the vast interest in colonising space.

Spacex’s Musk is also rumoured to have his sights set on populating the Red Planet with a colossal vehicle called the Mars Colonial Transporter, which if it were reusable could cut the costs of return trips. As he told Aeon recently, that would only be the beginning: “If we can establish a Mars colony, we can almost certainly colonise the whole Solar System, because we’ll have created a strong economic forcing function for the improvement of space travel. We’ll go to the moons of Jupiter, at least some of the outer ones for sure, and probably Titan on Saturn, and the asteroids.” Even Musk draws the line at inhabiting other stars, however. “Alpha Centauri is four light years away, so if you go at 10% of the speed of light, it’s going to take you 40 years, and that’s assuming you can instantly reach that speed, which isn’t going to be the case… I just wonder what humanity will even look like when we try to do that.”

Conclusion

The future of space colonization is an exciting and complex topic, with many potential benefi ts and challenges. While there are still signifi cant obstacles to overcome, the growing interest and investment in space exploration and colonization suggest that it may become a reality in the not- toodistant future.

If we are successful in our efforts, space colonization could open up a new frontier for humanity, providing us with new opportunities for exploration, discovery, and growth. It could also help us address some of the most pressing challenges facing our planet, from overpopulation and resource depletion to environmental degradation and climate change.

While we cannot predict with certainty what the future of space colonization will look like, we can be sure that it will require innovation, collaboration, and perseverance. Whether we are exploring the moons of Jupiter, terraforming Mars, or establishing a permanent lunar presence, we will need to work together to overcome the challenges and unlock the potential of this new frontier.*