Narendra Modi has key ace left on Ladakh crisis
Indian troops have disrupted the status quo and the Chinese don’t like it. And that’s what the ongoing talks in Chushul-Moldo are all about.
Indian and Chinese military commanders met for another round of talks at the ChushulMoldo point on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control Monday, joined for the first time by the Indian diplomat who heads the China desk in the ministry of external affairs, Naveen Srivastava – and echoing the presence of a political commissar who has always been present in the Chinese delegation. The talks went on for 15 hours. Srivastava has hardly had any time to acclimatise – Chushul is located at 13,000 feet – but that is not India’s biggest worry right now. As both India and China dig in, add additional strength and get ready for the long haul, the only positive aspect of this unhappy five-month-long intrusion by Chinese PLA troops is that both sides are still talking.
So what are the options before India and China as they head into winter? As I see it, there are four. First, China sees sense, disengages, draws down and returns to status quo ante. In return, India could reward it with a hefty contract or two.
A second option is a limited border conflict between the two – a hot, shooting war. But what if the rest of the world intervenes? Considering China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, other permanent members could come to India’s aid, thereby expanding the theatre of war beyond Ladakh. The third option is to accept transgressions the other side has committed and accept the new status quo. While the Chinese have occupied large swathes of territories inside Ladakh, Indian troops have climbed the Kailash range, which puts them on the commanding heights overlooking several Chinese positions below. Certainly, the game has changed. As of 29-30 August Indian troops have disrupted the status quo and the Chinese don’t like it. And that’s what the ongoing talks in already freezing ChushulMoldo are all about. There’s a fourth option – the meeting of heads of state and government of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) — as well as the BRICS summit — expected to be held in St Petersburg in November. Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping should be present in the video call. But if the Ladakh crisis isn’t resolved by then, Modi could say he won’t participate in both summits, delivering a body blow to Russia’s prestige as the host as well as to China’s reputation which aims to ensure stability in this part of the world. Certainly, the Chinese won’t want to be perceived to be an aggressor, especially in the SCO. Modi’s absence would be a diplomatic slap in the face of a country trying to lead others.
This leaf has been taken out before. Both in 2015, when the Chinese PLA intruded into Chumar in Ladakh during Xi’s visit to India, the Indian side repeated one sentence, again and again: You must return to status quo ante, otherwise all the fruits of the Chinese president’s visit will be wasted.In August 2017 as well, one key reason for China’s withdrawal from its eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with Indian troops on the Doklam plateau in Bhutan was the coming BRICS conference in Xiamen, China. The fear of losing face with other nations as you sipped Chinese green tea, elbow to elbow, was too much even for Xi to take. Remember, though, the Chinese never returned to status quo ante in Bhutan. They withdrew their bulldozers from the road they were building and Indian troops pulled back; but they have since stacked the area with permanent buildings and armaments.
As for the Modi government, which doesn’t even formally acknowledge the transgression, next steps are even more difficult. Perhaps he is guided these days by Deng Xiaoping’s saying, “It doesn’t matter when the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.”
The goal is to get the Chinese to return to its own side of the LAC. For the time being, nothing else matters.