SP rift leaves BJP strategists worried

The deepening rift in the Samajwadi Party (SP) is making the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nervous. The developments threaten to impact BJP’s strategy aimed at making it the single largest party in a three-cornered contest between itself, the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

In the assessment of party’s Uttar Pradesh leaders, any split in the SP, whether overt or otherwise, would be advantageous to BSP and puncture the BJP’s ambitions of making an electoral comeback in the state. The last BJP government in Lucknow was way back in 2002.

However, it won a spectacular 71 of UP’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 on the back of Narendra Modi’s message of development, but also the clever patchwork of castes that Amit Shah stitched for the party and the split in Muslim votes between the SP and BSP. The BJP has hopes of repeating this with the SP government facing anti-incumbency.

Of vital importance for this strategy is the splitting of Muslim votes vertically between the SP and BSP. Muslims constitute a sizeable 20 per cent of UP’s population and are likely to make a difference if a large majority of them vote in favour of either the SP or BSP. BJP leaders believe Muslims are still undecided, but the infighting in SP could result in the community supporting the BSP in the elections. This, on paper, would make BSP unbeatable with a 40 per cent support base, including 20 per cent of Dalits in the state.

In the last two Assembly polls, in 2007 and 2012, a party receiving 29-30 per cent votes in a multi-cornered contest formed a majority government in the 403-member Assembly. The BSP won 206 seats with a vote share of 30.43 per cent in 2007, while the SP was victorious with 224 seats with a 29.15-per cent vote share in 2012.

To ensure that UP remains a multi-cornered fight, some in the BJP have even taken to suggest that the party should from now on, at least in its public pronouncements, count Rahul Gandhi-led Congress as a credible rival. The BJP leaders have done their bit in trying to sow seeds of doubt among Muslims about BSP’s chances in the polls. In their public meetings, the PM and Shah have been identifying the SP as their chief rival. Behind the scenes, the BJP has tried to portray Mayawati’s BSP as a weakened force by periodically poaching some of its important backward caste leaders. The BJP hopes this might make Muslims in UP’s western, eastern and central regions vote differently and make decisions based on local factors, instead of as part of a pan-UP strategy.

Apart from its message of development, the BJP’s caste arithmetic is to build on its committed 15 per cent vote base of upper castes by adding some caste groups that traditionally vote for BSP, to reach the magic 30-per cent vote share. In her public rallies, Mayawati has been imploring Dalits and Muslims to unite.

BJP leaders believe Muslims are still undecided, but the infighting in SP could result in the community supporting the BSP in UP polls