Business Standard

Citi sees India growth at 8%; to help boost oil, gold demand

- DAN MURTAUGH Singapore, 26 September BLOOMBERG

and electricit­y generation, while looser regulation­s should spur increased exports of iron ore into the market. India's economy won't copy China's near-decade of double-digit economic growth that pushed oil prices into the $100-a-barrel range, but will be enough to impact global supply-and-demand balances of several commoditie­s, Morse said.

"While India is no China, the sub-continent's largest economy is becoming the third largest oil consumer and importer of oil, with a tangible impact on oil, coal and iron ore markets, less so on metals," Morse said. "As India's base rises, so too should its global commoditie­s' impacts."

Citi expects 2016 to be the best in four years for commodity investment­s. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 7.4 per cent this year. Oil, zinc, copper and soft commoditie­s will be the best investment­s in 2017, with Brent crude seen averaging $60 a barrel after ending this year around $50.

India's crude demand has grown by 350,000 barrels a day this year, higher than China, as the country surpassed Japan to be the world's thirdlarge­st oil buyer. Gasoline demand has risen 14 per cent this year and should continue to increase at double-digit rates as car and motorcycle purchases climb, Morse said.

Coal demand will grow between six per cent and eight per cent a year through 2020 as the country tries to electrify more rural areas.

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