BJP victory or Congress loss?
Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani has termed the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) recent success in the local body polls in the state as a mandate for demonetisation and the surgical strike. The Opposition Congress and political observers, however, feel it is too early to make such a sweeping statement.
The BJP won 107 of the 123 seats across local self-governance institutions in the state. Reflecting on the results, Rupani said, “These clearly show that extreme steps taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi — surgical strike and demonetisation — have worked.”
Members of the BJP said the results were a pleasant surprise for the party, despite the inconvenience caused by the Centre’s decision to demonetise ~500 and ~1,000 currency notes. the Congress dismissed the results as insignificant. In the two municipalities of Vapi in the Valsad district and Kanakpur-Kansad in the Surat district, the BJP did a clean sweep. In Vapi, the party bagged 41 of the 44 seats, and in Kanakpur-Kansad, it got 27 of the 28 seats. Both are considered to be BJP strongholds. BJP won 18 out of 22 seats that went for by-polls in the Gondal taluka panchayat. This was a surprise because in December last year, the Congress had won it.
BJP also won five of the 15 seats in taluka panchayat by-polls; Congress won four. The polls to the six seats were postponed because of technical reasons. Panchayat elections are not fought on party lines in the state, but individuals who contest these polls are invariably affiliated or members of one party or the other.
While the Congress eschewed BJP’s claim of a “people’s mandate” for its recent policies, it did admit to a shortfall in its strategy. Senior leaders of the party claimed it should have been able to capitalise on its gains in local body polls last year.
“These are a very small number of local bodies and seats to draw a conclusion on a trend. This truly doesn’t reflect the people’s mood over the effects of demonetisation. However, there are some lacunae in our strategy; we had a chance to improve our standing,” said Arjun Modhwadia, a senior Congress leader in the state.
In December 2015, the party had won 134 taluka panchayats of the total 230 that went to poll, leaving only 67 for BJP. Congress had also won 22 district panchayats of the total 31, with BJP winning only seven. BJP went on to win in urban areas by bagging all six municipal corporations that went to polls and 42 of the 56 municipalities as against Congress’ 10. Despite a slight reversal in fortunes this year, political observers are not ready to read any mood.
According to Achyut Yagnik, a social scientist and political observer, the polls were too soon after demonetisation to reflect the results.
“BJP’s win in these bodies is not significant. This does not prove anything about people’s acceptance of the recent move. However, this was a field test of sorts for the Congress in its preparation for next year’s state Assembly elections. And it is here that they failed,” said Yagnik.
The Congress state unit has been plagued by infighting. But it seems to be learning the lessons and trying to get its act together. “The results are a signal that we have to be more aggressive. We will hold more interactions with different sections of the society and look to raise more pertinent issues and become the voice of the people,” Modhwadia said.