There is anti-incumbency in urban areas and the AAP is a significant new factor but rural Punjab, the Akali base, will hold the key
admits a former Union minister and Congress leader. “If AAP manages to win 15-20 per cent of the total votes, the Congress will lose. It is most likely that the SAD-BJP alliance might come to power with a thin majority or it will be a hung Assembly.”
In the current scenario, 15 per cent will make a huge difference in the outcome of the 2017 Assembly elections. SAD and Congress were neck and neck in the 2012 election, with 42.4 per cent and 40.1 per cent, respectively, of the votes in the seats they had contested. As a percentage of total votes in all 117 seats, the SAD vote percentage at 34.7 was less than the Congress at 40 per cent but it managed to win 10 more than the latter. Overall, 22 assembly seats were closely fought between the Congress and the SAD-BJP.
“In urban areas the swing voters (other than the staunch party acolytes) are currently confused between Congress and AAP. Though AAP has lost its initial momentum, some sections, including youth, seem inclined towards the new party,” believes J P Talwar, a businessman in Punjab’s most populated city, Ludhiana. AAP also believes it can get the largest share of the state’s 32 per cent Dalit votes.
Political experts in the state, however, feel the current demonetisation scheme announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8 is negatively impacting the AAP more, rather than the Congress or SAD. “Moreover, Arvind Kejriwal has lost the moral high ground by siding with Lalu Prasad and Mamata Banerjee on the currency ban issue, whereas Prime Minister Modi has carved out his space on this matter. If the central government manages to announce some rebate in income tax during the financial budget, it might change the tide in favour of SAD-BJP,” feels Pramod Kumar, director of the Institute for Development and Communications, “But, for that, the SAD has to reach out to people on the ground.”
Some feel there is no undercurrent in support for all the three main contenders. They believe AAP will not be able to form a government on its own but will spoil the Congress’ chances. The other thing which might hurt the Congress is seat distribution, lack of enthusiasm among its cadre and internal feuds. The party has already made up its mind that if there is a hung Assembly, it will not join hands with AAP. “That will be political suicide,” says the Congress leader.
However, it is true that people in urban Punjab seem inclined to change the regime. But, it is the SAD ally, BJP, which mostly contests on urban seats. The SAD strength continues to rest in rural areas.
2012 PUNJAB ELECTIONS | | Popularity of Parkash Singh Badal and Amarinder Singh as most preferred chief ministeramongfarmersandwomen(2012) (%) | | Trend in popularity of major political leaders as most preferred chief minister (2002-12) (%) | | | MostimportantelectionissueinPunjab