‘Demonetisation takes you down… so it will be recovery from this year’

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN Arup Roychoudhury and Indivjal Dhasmana immediately makes your debt dynamics turn. We need to not rely on growth but on steady improvements in the primary balance. We must have debt on a steady declining path, as a developing economy.

Can we expect something from the Centre on UBI in terms of a policy or a pilot project?

Although UBI as an idea has been around, and Indian economists have written about it, there has not been a debate in India involving the government. Converting what seems like a very good idea into practical policy is not easy. There are so many challenges. We should try for something. In this case, pilot projects are useful, but by definition it is a macroeconomic policy.

You have not spoken on the demonetisation move...

It is an issue but it is not an issue that the Economic Survey should get into. As also, one should not look back. It is better to look ahead. Demonetisation takes you down, and your forecast for next year has to start with where you are. So, in that sense, it will be recovery from this year.

The Congress has attacked the government on jobless growth. Will focus on low-skill manufacturing address that?

Jobs are about getting growth up, getting investment, and doing some targeted policies for apparel, construction, etc. You have to do a series of things. You have to increase demand for labour.

Are your growth forecasts more accurate than the numbers given out by the chief statistician?

In this business, we have to try and be as realistic and honest as possible. To be fair to the CSO (Central Statistics Office), they said explicitly that their data does not reflect demonetisation. Now you can have a separate discussion on whether a statistical agency should do that or not. But, they have been transparent on that front, though it is a major development. But it can’t be the basis for planning.

How will US President Donald Trump’s recent decisions, especially the restrictions on H1B visas, affect India?

It depends on what they do and how serious it is. Seriousness of the action will determine the impact. If it is draconian, the impact will be severe. As far as India is concerned, what governments do is control things domestically. You have to work within that.