Naveen faces his first big challenge in 17 years

The BJP’s road map for Odisha is ready: Galvanise the party workers from the booth level upwards and draw in people from the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which is the ruling party, and the Congress

An important takeaway from the BJP’s executive meet in Bhubaneswar, apart from resolutions on various national issues, was the pitch the party made for power in Odisha in the 2019 assembly elections in pursuance of its agenda to make inroads into new territories, particularly in the eastern region.

The road map for this is ready: Galvanise the party workers from the booth level upwards and draw in people from the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which is the ruling party, and the Congress.

This strategy was palpable during the party’s executive meeting and the roadshow by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aimed at boosting the morale of the party workers and attempting to throw the BJD into disarray through statements such as many leaders of the regional outfit were in touch with the saffron brigade and ready to jump the fence, seeing the rise in the BJP’s stock in the state.

There was speculation that some BJD stalwarts would join the BJP when the national executive was on. Though this did not happen, the apprehensions remained primarily due to the sombre mood in the BJD after its drubbing in some districts in the panchayat polls and the public squabbling among its senior leaders.

Some days earlier, BJD MP Tathagat Satapathy created a controversy by tweeting that a party MP was in league with the BJP to split the party and take away the party symbol. His party colleague and MP, Baijayant Panda, replied to this and then wrote an article in a local daily, blaming the vested interests for the decay in the party and calling for an introspection.

Even before this, BJD Vice President and Minister Damodar Rout had blamed ‘conspirators’ for the lacklustre performance of the party in the rural local body polls.

BJD supremo and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, who wields an iron grip on the party affairs and usually reins in such acts of public sparring by leaders with stern warnings, has maintained a stoic silence over the issue. His evasive replies on a possible reshuffle of the ministry in the aftermath of panchayat elections have strengthened rumours that he is losing control over the party.

Patnaik is known to have taken tough action to boost his and the party’s image whenever he has faced any challenge. Hence it was expected that he would drop some ministers in whose districts the party’s showing was poor and induct fresh blood in their place. But such an exercise is yet to happen.

“He (Patnaik) always surprises everyone with his action. This time also he has many surprises up his sleeve. You will find them unfolding soon,” said a party leader, adding, “the chief minister is currently busy taking stock of the party’s performance in different districts and, for a change, interacting even with grassroots workers to have a feel of the situation in their respective areas. You will find him taking action after the consultation process is over”.

Even as Patnaik prepares his strategy to face the BJP onslaught and keep the party’s flanks covered, the saffron party hopes to rope in some BJD heavyweights. “A split in the BJD may look unlikely, but you will see some of their leaders crossing over to us as the election approaches. We have already emerged as the alternative to the BJD in the state,” said a BJP leader. In that case, the big question that crops up is the rehabilitating and assimilating these leaders who are coming from other parties.

“Some top political leaders like Bijay Mahapatra, Dillip Ray and Giridhar Gamang (Congress), who had joined the BJP after long careers in the BJD and Congress, are now in the wilderness. Though Mahapatra and Ray are national executive members, they did not steal the arc lights, unlike their counterparts with roots in the BJP, during the party’s national executive meet. So much so that Modi didn’t even receive bouquets from Mahapatra at the airport, where he had gone to welcome the prime minister,” pointed out SN Mishra, a political analyst. These would play in the minds of those who wish to join the BJP.

In the zilla parishad elections, which were the only ones contested on party tickets, the BJD’s vote share was 40 per cent (a slide of 3 per cent), the Congress’s 18 per cent (a slide of 6 per cent) and the BJP’s 33 per cent (a gain of 11 per cent). With the BJP already being the beneficiary of most of the anti-incumbency votes, can it cover the gap of seven per cent, banking on the popularity of Modi, the Centre’s pro-poor policies, the development plank, etc?

One thing is certain: Patnaik, who never faced a serious challenge in the past 17 years as chief minister, is set for a tough fight in 2019. Apart from the anti-incumbency votes, the BJP gained because of the Congress's weakening support base in the panchayat elections. But a change in the state Congress leadership, a possibility before the general elections, and the installation of a leader who could enthuse the Congress workers in the state might act as a spoiler in the BJP's 2019 plan, Mishra added.