Gold heads for uncertain period

Prices of gold could be heading into uncertain territory, for various reasons.

Subsiding geopolitical issues and the certainty of a rise in US interest rates next month makes it difficult to rise in the medium term, say experts.

The yellow metal fell to $1,221 an ounce, a twomonth low. Silver fell sharply to $16.3 an oz in the US Comex division of the ICE exchange on Friday. In a month, gold is down 2.7 per cent; silver is down 10.8 per cent. Currently, gold is trading at $1,233 and silver at $16.4.

In India, gold is down 3.5 per cent over a month, to ~28,905 per 10 g. Silver fell 10 per cent to ~38,625 a kg. Currently, gold is trading at $1233 and silver at $16.40.

Nigam Arora, an expert on global financial markets, said: “Gold can go either way in the short term. It is technically oversold and has found support above $1,220. This indicates a rally in the very near term.”

However, he said, the strong employment report announced on Friday in the US is supportive of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. “The US health care bill is passed. This is good for equity and negative for gold,” he said. “There is strong support underneath around $1,194-1,208. If this support is broken and there are no new geopolitical developments, then there is a serious downside risk.”

On the Multi Commodity Exchange till last Thursday, open positions in gold were the lowest after November last year, at 6,475 lots. Sellers seem to have the upper hand.

Shekhar Bhandari, senior executive vice-president at Kotak Mahindra Bank, said: “The US Fed seems set to hike, regardless of whether inflation rises to their target in the near term. Gold has behaved sharply on account of this. It is coupled with higher US real rates, tax reform and infrastructure. On the whole, geopolitical risks have also subsided. Safehaven trade seems to have subsided for now.”