The promise of Hyperloop

There are significant technical and cost challenges

The framework agreement between the Maharashtra government and the Virgin Group to build a Hyperloop system connecting Mumbai with Pune signals one of the most ambitious transport projects ever envisaged. Virgin Hyperloop One will first test the technology on a 10-km circuit in Pune. Speed will be ramped up from an initial 350 km per hour (kmph) to around 1,000 kmph. Richard Branson, the founder- CEO of Virgin, says the system will carry 150 million passengers per year and cut travel time to 25 minutes while connecting the proposed airport at Navi Mumbai as well. The journey on the Mumbai-Pune Expressway takes close to three hours at present. Mr Branson says a high-capacity passenger and cargo Hyperloop system, apart from cutting travel time, will create employment and reduce greenhouse gas emission, leading to $55 billion (about ~3.6 trillion at the current exchange rate) worth of “socio-economic benefits” over 30 years. If this goes through, it will obviously be a game changer. If Hyperloop does become an efficient mass transport mechanism, it could alter 21st-century patterns of work, commuting, and urban design. Commuters could live 200 km from their workplaces and city centres. Bulk goods could be transported quickly and with reduced environmental impact. However, there are immense challenges to putting up such a system. Nobody has built a working Hyperloop system over any significant distance. Indeed, the technology itself is not yet beyond proof of concept. There are massive technological, design, and engineering issues to be resolved before a mass-transit system can be built. For instance, the highest speed so far demonstrated, and that too over very short distances in straight tunnels, is only about 390 kmph. The Hyperloop concept is to build a vacuum-proofed tunnel or “pipe”, inside which magnetic-levitation technology can be used to suspend pods, which are propelled along at high speeds using an electrical propulsion system. The vacuum minimises air resistance. Hence, theoretically, very high speeds could be attained using relatively little energy. That energy may be totally clean so it could result in emission reduction as well. But the tunnel in question will be extremely expensive to design, build, and maintain, quite apart from the cost of the land involved. It is an open question then whether the extra costs are justified. Moreover, it must be vacuum-sealed at all times. Even minimal air in the tunnel causes bumpiness and reduced speed. Every turn in a Hyperloop tunnel leads to a sharp rise in vacuuming costs and propulsive energy expenditures since the pod must then be braked and turned. In this regard, Mumbai-Pune is a particularly challenging stretch since it covers hilly terrain. So, notwithstanding its tremendous promise, there are considerable technical hurdles in building and running it, not to mention the higher costs involved. Looking back, similarly ambitious projects have had a hit-and-miss record. Resounding successes include the undersea telegraph cable systems of the 19th century and the satellite networks of the 20th century. Both were considered a pie in the sky. Yet, both enabled huge advances in communications. On the other hand, Concorde was technologically fantastic but its commercial services lost money hand over fist. Similarly, bullet trains and hovercraft services have often proved economically unfeasible. The Hyperloop could fall into either of these categories. Lack of details on financing and timelines makes it even harder to judge what’s at risk. It may be a game changer and a trigger for urban renewal. It could also be a huge, expensive failure — the kind that a relatively poor country like India cannot afford. Or, it may be a white elephant with long delays and cost overruns. The Maharashtra government deserves praise for its courage. But wait for the outcome with a healthy dose of scepticism.