Learning the ropes

Gogoi junior will have to learn pretty fast because there is no time to admire the problem or savour the learning curve. Either way, he deserves marks for trying

Gaurav Gogoi, in his 30s, has replaced CP Joshi, in his 70s, to become the Congress general secretary in charge of West Bengal. And the Andaman Islands.

This puts him in charge of all liaison between Congress President Rahul Gandhi and the Bengal unit of the Congress that has given the nation such leaders as Pranab Mukherjee, Siddhartha Sankar Ray, Priya Ranjan Dasmunshi …. and Mamata Banerjee. That is actually the potential problem.

Gogoi is a first time Member of Parliament (MP) from Assam’s Kaliabor constituency, having won the last general election by a margin of around 90,000 votes. In some ways, he was the reason the Congress ‘gifted’ its top leader and ace campaign manager, Himanta Biswa Sarma to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Sarma was a protégé of senior Assam Congress leader Tarun Gogoi, Gaurav’s father and Assam chief minister. When Gaurav returned from the US with a Masters in Public Policy (after a degree in engineering and extensive experience with an NGO) in 2013, his father put Sarma in charge to ‘show him around’. Sarma, who thought he would be the one to assume the senior Gogoi’s mantle, figured out quickly, that it was the son who would take over from the father.

Came the 2014 elections. The Congress did badly, managing to get only three seats out of 14 with seven going to the BJP. Sarma could see the writing on the wall. He quit the Congress in 2015 and joined the BJP in 2016. The party won the Assembly elections with Sarma’s tactical help. His justification was “Rahul Gandhi humiliated me, Tarun Gogoi humiliated me, people witnessed this. People in Assam have voted for development. The problem with Rahul Gandhi is that he is not serious. I am very happy that Rahul Gandhi has learnt his lesson.” Throughout the Assembly election, the BJP’s target was Gandhi, possibly recognising that Tarun Gogoi is still considered one of Assam’s tallest leaders.

Gaurav Gogoi can hardly be blamed for the Congress debacle. He was contesting elections for the first time, and at least, he stepped up to the plate. His performance in the Lok Sabha has been spirited. But Gandhi has appointed Gogoi the man in charge of an incredibly complex task. He will have to butt heads with Mamata Banerjee.

In the 2016 Assembly elections in West Bengal, Congress got 40.2 per cent of the votes polled and won 44 seats. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) got 45 per cent of the vote and won 211 seats. The Congress reckons it might not have won the seats but it still has a base in the state. If TMC accepts this, it is conceding its main rival in Bengal is the Congress. Gaurav Gogoi has to be tactful but firm with both Congress cadres and TMC activists. When you add to this, the pressure of putting up one common Opposition candidate in every constituency in the Lok Sabha elections against one candidate of the BJP, the challenge is even bigger.

TMC’s calculation is simple. If it does a deal with the Congress, it will have to forego six to eight Lok Sabha seats: In Malda, Murshidabad and Dinajpur. Why not put the Congress in a place where it is forced to support a federal front from the outside?

From the TMC’s standpoint, Gaurav Gogoi could be useful in helping counsel the local unit of the Congress to hang up its boots and not become an impediment in Opposition unity — because there wasn’t much the party had to say for itself any way. In the panchayat elections concluded recently, TMC won 34 per cent of the seats uncontested. More independents won the election than the Congress which figured at number four, after TMC, BJP and the Left.

There have been two kinds of reactions from the state Congress on Gaurav Gogoi’s appointment. One set of views is: He obviously has Gandhi’s ear so maybe now, someone will pay attention to the state Congress. But another set of Congressmen only chortle. First time MP, no experience of negotiation… we're sunk, they say. West Bengal sends 42 seats to the Lok Sabha, so it is not a state that can be ignored.

Gaurav Gogoi will have to learn pretty fast because there is no time to admire the problem or savour the learning curve. If he argues too hard for an alliance with the TMC, he curtails the growth and revival of the party in the state. If he tries to be brave and encourages the Congress to retain its brand and self-image, he risks the danger of helping the BJP.

Either way, he deserves to get the marks for trying!