VOTING BEHAVIOUR: DOES BIG TURNOUT FAVOUR AN INCUMBENT GOVERNMENT?

Uttar Pradesh (2007-2012)

In the 2007 election, Mayawati had led the Bahujan Samaj Party to victory with a 45.96 per cent turnout despite the fierce May heat. In 2012, the turnout was much higher (59.40 per cent). Many thought this would lead to Mayawati’s return. But Akhilesh Yadav stormed to victory leading to a change of regime. Uttarakhand (2007-2012)

In 2007, a 59.45 per cent turnout installed Gen BC Khanduri of the BJP in power. The turnout in 2012 was even higher at 66.17 per cent. But the larger turnout proved to go against the incumbent regime. BJP was ousted and the Congress made a comeback with a (relatively) huge swing of 10 seats, installing Harish Rawat as Chief Minister, with Khanduri losing his own seat. However, the BJP was just one seat behind the Congress.

Punjab (2007-2012)

The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-Bharatiya Janata

Party (BJP) combine won the 2007 elections in Punjab with a turnout of 75.45 per cent. In 2012, the turnout was slightly higher at 78.20 per cent. But this made no difference to the fortunes of the SADBJP combine. They returned to power.

Goa (2007-2012)

With a turnout of 70.51 per cent (which means only three people out of 10 did not vote) in 2007 that went in favour of the Congress, it was assumed that higher turnout mean endorsement of a ruling regime, right ? Wrong. In 2012, the turnout went up to 81.73 per cent – and the BJP was installed in government. Congress seats went down drastically. Manipur (2007-2012)

In 2007, with an 86.73 per cent turnout, the Congress was voted decisively to power. But in 2012, the turnout went down to 79.17 per cent. Most believed this heralded the rise of another power coalition, in which the BJP was a partner.