Release data on employment, economists tell govt
“This is true for a long time when it comes to the NSSO surveys. But the surveys are not designed to measure population as it derives the ratios. The estimates are based on a sample and when you calibrate them with the actual or projected population numbers, you are fiddling with the unit-level data. That is unacceptable”
The National Statistical Commission (NSC) did not favour the idea of calibrating the estimates of the National Sample Survey Office’s (NSSO’s) first periodic labour force survey (PLFS) with the official population projection of the country.
The issue of linking the population estimates with the size of the workforce, the unemployed, among others, in the NSSO's survey report of 2017-18 was discussed in the NSC's last meeting held on December 5.
The NSC had approved the NSSO's report, which showed unemployment rate at a 45-year high of 6.1 per cent, while rejecting the idea of calibrating the estimates in the report with the population projections based on the Census figures. The NSC felt that in a way, this exercise would have required a backseries on the NSSO's jobs data so that the figures are comparable with the past estimates produced by the NSSO in its quinquennial reports.
“There were two issues: One, the data would have become incomparable with the past estimates of the NSSO on employment and unemployment. NSSO's PLFS report and the functioning Second, a similar exercise on the past of the Commission. reports of the NSSO since 1972-73 could The Ministry of Statistics and have been done but that would have Programme Implementation (MoSPI) delayed the process,” former NSC chairman had given a project, known as Structured PC Mohanan, who had chaired the Preserving Estimation Procedures (or December 5 meeting, said. Chief statistician SPREE), to the Kolkata-based Indian Pravin Srivastava was also a part of Statistical Institute (ISI) for coming up this meeting, along with NSSO officials. with a methodology to calibrate the
Mohanan, along with a member of NSSO esimates with the population projections the NSC JV Meenakshi, had resigned in based on the Census numbers, January, expressing their disappointment last released over a for delay the year in 2011. releasing the (%) (%)
The ISI had given a presentation to the NSC in its December meeting and had said the changes in the final estimate after the calibration "would be cosmetic", sources said. The idea presented was to use the NSSO rates for a sample of households and adjust the blowing up according to the NSSO design.
Mohanan confirmed that a decision was taken to not attempt calibration in the NSSO's PLFS report for 2017-18 as "it will create confusion among researchers while using the unit-level data and the figures will not be comparable with the past rounds." The NSC, however, suggested that a separate report could be brought out with the calibrated figures.
The issue here is that the NSSO reports over the years have been underestimating the country's population when compared to the population projections made through the Census data. The difference essentially comes because the NSSO estimates the population based on its sample size of 100,000-odd households.
“This is true for a long time when it comes to the NSSO surveys. But the surveys are not designed to measure population as it derives the ratios. The estimates are based on a sample and when you calibrate them with the actual or projected population numbers, you are fiddling with the unit-level data. That is unacceptable,” former chief statistician Pronab Sen said. The last Census, done in a gap of 10 years, was conducted for the year 2011. However, a population projection is derived by applying the average net growth rate in the population for all years.
Sources said according to the Census data, the projected population for 2017 stood at 1.3 billion. The NSSO's estimate of population stood at 1.07 billion - around 20 per cent lower than the Census' projected population, according to the source. The NSSO's 2011-12 report had underestimated the rural population by 5 per cent and the urban population by 18 per cent.
The NSSO report has been withheld for release by the government, despite the approval of the NSC and a standing committee in the first week of December. The government has termed it as a 'draft' report. A copy of the NSSO report reviewed by Business Standard showed unemployment rate at a 45-year high of 6.1 per cent.