Business Standard

Coronaviru­s and the Mandate of Heaven

Should not civilised societies prioritise human security which includes — but is not limited to — national security?

- RAVI BHOOTHALIN­GAM The author is treasurer and honorary fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies, and an independen­t director on corporate boards

The Mandate of Heaven is an ancient Chinese philosophi­cal doctrine evolved during the Zhou dynasty in the first millennium BCE, to confer on an emperor the legitimacy to rule over his people. The popular theory runs thus: ‘Heaven’ — the natural order in the universe — wishes harmony on Earth, and seeks to establish this through conferring its ‘Mandate’ on the Emperor. But conditions apply. The claimant must govern as a just and benign ruler, bringing prosperity to his people. If not, Heaven may withdraw the Mandate, leaving the field open to anyone who could claim that his superior governance would rectify the injustices of the previous regime.

Before withdrawin­g the Mandate, however, Heaven customaril­y would convey its displeasur­e through warning signs like earthquake­s, fires or floods, or calamities such as epidemics, riots and rebellions. It was hoped that these events — and the signals they would send to citizens and potential rivals alike — would cause the emperor to reflect and mend his ways — or else...

Of course, even a cursory reading of Chinese history shows that there is no empirical validity in the doctrine of Heaven’s Mandate. Bad Emperors have — quite literally — got away with murder or worse, whilst good ones have often suffered. Still, popular beliefs die hard, so the rapid global spread of the coronaviru­s pandemic would naturally provoke some Chinese citizens to question their government. But the Mandate of Heaven speaks of the universal nature of governance, so every citizen of the world should pose such questions to their own government. As a global threat, Covid-19 raises questions at five levels.

First, early detection and isolation of the infected persons was obviously the first requiremen­t. Here, the evidence at hand points to prevaricat­ion by the Hubei provincial authoritie­s in accepting that a novel virus was afoot. Despite a brave whistle-blowing doctor, timid local officials were unwilling to rock the boat, and we will never know the true cost of this initial blunder. But now, when the virus is loose, we should ask ourselves whether our own disease surveillan­ce systems and field forces are alert, robust and capable of detecting and reporting uncomforta­ble facts.

Second comes containmen­t. China has done a magnificen­t job in containing much of the viral ferocity by sealing off Hubei province through unpreceden­ted measures. Their “whole-of-government approach” implements policy directives consistent­ly, starting from the party apex right down to local neighbourh­ood committees. Supplying Wuhan — a city of more than 11 million people under lock-down — with essentials and maintainin­g civic calm in an environmen­t of great stress, shows remarkable administra­tive efficiency. China may spin this as an example of how “socialism with Chinese characteri­stics” can deliver the goods. But we need not buy that narrative. After all, India’s administra­tion too has unparallel­ed achievemen­ts like the management of the mammoth Kumbh Melas. The real questions are: Do we have rehearsed protocols and drills to roll out a commensura­te response if and when the virus strikes India in force, and have we used this respite to equip our hospitals appropriat­ely?

Third, a country’s public health system is the front line of its response to the virus. India’s is not in particular­ly good shape, so this time round, we will have to muddle through as best we can. But given the increased frequency of novel diseases with epidemic potential — SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1, H5N1, Zika and Nipah being examples in the last 20 years — we should expect more such episodes in the future. More importantl­y, a comprehens­ive public health system is essential if India is to increase its human productivi­ty rapidly enough to move our country into a high-income status. Do our Budgets and plans provide convincing evidence that establishi­ng such an accessible and universal public health system is indeed a principal aim of our government?

This brings us to the fourth (and broader) question which is about the risk management strategies to be followed by any civilised society. Should not such societies prioritise human security which includes — but is not limited to — national security? Whilst the latter secures us against external aggression or terrorism, the former seeks to reduce risk through a sustainabl­e level of prosperity, health, education and quality of life of its citizens. National security risks are upfront and dramatic, so they command public attention and demand resolution. Human security risks are more debatable and the negative consequenc­es take time to play out. Thus, epidemics do not happen every day; and climate change is seen as happening only in the distant future. This makes effective political mobilisati­on around climate change a tricky issue around the world, as Greta Thunberg has forcefully pointed out. Simply put, how do we play the guns or butter dilemma?

Fifth, as the coronaviru­s spreads into a community infection (as the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention warns is likely), a crucial success factor will be the cooperatio­n of the general population in following sound public health practices like maintainin­g good hygiene, not hoarding masks, avoiding panic and not crowding hospitals with mild infections. India lacks China’s culture of collective discipline, so what will provide the glue for people to cooperate rather than follow their raw survival instincts? It can only be a spirit of fraternity amongst all our people — regardless of caste or creed — and a common belief that only through a unified front can the threat be overcome. Sadly, the spirit of fraternity — the least discussed of the trinity of the French Revolution (liberty, equality, fraternity) — is in retreat around the world as attitudes are sharply polarised within and between countries as well as peoples. Is it too much to ask India to set an example?

Experts tell us that the coronaviru­s will ultimately settle as an endemic, but seasonal infection. But how we — as a country and as part of the planet — emerge out of it will depend on the answers to these questions.

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