Manipur crisis: Conrad playing on both fronts
Manipur is in the grips of a political crisis. Again? You might ask. The reason: There’s a structural problem in Meghalaya and Manipur that will lead to recurrent instability unless it is resolved. The name of the problem is Conrad Sangma.
Last week, Manipur Congress legislative party leader Okram Ibobi Singh wrote to Governor Najma Heptulla, seeking a special Assembly session to adopt a no-confidence motion against incumbent N Biren Singh’s government and to invite the newly formed Secular Progressive Front to form the government under his leadership.
The front was formed after three BJP MLAS resigned and joined the Congress, while four National People’s Party (NPP) MLAS, an independent MLA, and a Trinamool Congress MLA withdrew support to the Biren Singh government.
For many, it was a bizarre situation. The
BJP MLAS were well within their rights to change parties, leaving them free to join a new alliance. But for Sangma’s MLAS, it was an entirely different situation. In the neighbouring Meghalaya, it is the Sangma-led NPP that is in power, with Sangma the chief minister. His government is supported by the BJP, which has just two MLAS in the 60-member House.
If the bid to unseat the BJP government is successful and a Congress government is installed with the help of the NPP, the party and Sangma himself will be in the happy situation of supporting a Congress-led alliance in Manipur and a BJP alliance in Meghalaya. “Our MLAS in Manipur withdrew support after three of the BJP MLAS resigned. There has been a bit of friction between the leadership of the government and our MLAS,” Sangma told interviewers.
In April, then Manipur Deputy Chief Minister Yumnam Joykumar Singh of the NPP was stripped of his portfolios by Biren Singh following a controversy over rice allocation under the National Food Security Act during the lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus.
Joykumar had reportedly dismissed the chief minister’s assurance about food security in elegant terminology, calling the claims “hogwash” and “gibberish”. He said the rice allocation for his constituency was not enough. This led to major differences between local units of the BJP and the NPP.
This was the trigger. In fact, observers say, Sangma is an ambitious and sharp young politician, who is quick to spot political opportunities and leverage them. Differences with the BJP have been on for months because Sangma feels he is being held back from his grand plans of the leadership of the Northeast, that was once enjoyed by his father, PA Sangma, the founder of NPP.
When he died in 2016, his two sons and daughter Agatha came into their own. It was Conrad Sangma who consolidated the family’s political fortunes. The NPP has been a key BJP ally in the Northeast. It was also a key member of the Northeast Democratic Alliance — a non-congress political platform floated by the BJP after winning the Assam polls in 2016. But Sangma wants more.
In the home turf of Meghalaya, the NPP runs the government with the help of the BJP and other NDA partners. The state’s main Opposition is the Congress. But these are notional loyalties. In Nagaland too, the NPP is part of a BJPsupported government (led by Neiphiu Rio of the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party). If the NPP’S Nagaland unit displays the same independent-mindedness as Manipur’s, the government of Nagaland could also be under threat.
The question is, does Sangma have control over his party? Or is the NPP behaving this way after a go-ahead from him as part of a grand plan to seek more?
It all depends on what happens in Manipur next. In his letter to the governor, Ibobi Singh stated the strength of the Congress in Manipur Assembly is 20 as seven of its MLAS are barred from entering the House by Manipur High Court. “The present ministry is now supported by only 23 MLAS, 18 from the BJP, four from the NPF, and one from the LJP (Lok Janshakti Patry). On the other hand, the SPF has a total of 20 Congress MLAS, four NPP MLAS, one Trinamool MLA and one independent, totalling 26 members out of an effective House strength of 49 members,” it said.
“In the event of the disqualification cases of seven MLAS of the Congress decided by the Speakers Tribunal in their favour, the effective House strength rises to 56 members, and the Congress and its supporting parties of the SPF will command 33 MLAS, while the BJP and its coalition parties will continue with a combined strength of 23. Thus, the present ministry is now in the minority and to ensure that a floor test is conducted at the earliest... and to summon the House in a couple of days to vote on the no-confidence motion...,” said his letter.
The governor can move to save the BJP’S bacon in Manipur for now. But the domino effect of events in Manipur may be seen elsewhere in the Northeast in the coming days.