Lockdown lethargy, festive season likely to push up numbers
Social distancing is antithetical to festivals, but it is the only way to rein in the contagion, say health care experts. With big festivals lined up, they forecast no let-up in Covid-positive cases.
Despite muted Ganesh Chaturthi celebrations, Mumbai still witnessed a sharp spike in cases as people cocked a snook at social distancing.
Public health experts feel that increased interaction between people during the festivities, along with gradual unlocking, has been the culprit.
The seven-day moving average growth rate (for new Covid19 case additions) has more than doubled since August 20 — from 0.6 per cent to 1.3 per cent daily increase. The number of new daily cases, too, is up from 1,000 to over 2,200 now.
Towards the end of August, the daily numbers had dropped below 1,000. The numbers have seen a steady increase ever since. The total number of confirmed cases in Mumbai is up 34.7 per cent since mid-august. It is up from 128,000 on August 15 to 172,000 on September 14, shows the data from the pandemic tracker covid19india.org.
The total number of cases in India is already around the 5-million mark.
The Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM, also known as Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation) officials say that Mumbai has also increased Covid testing.
“We now conduct around 15,000 tests per day as opposed to 9,000. Almost 75 per cent of the tests are real-time polymerase chain reaction (RTPCR) tests,” said Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner, MCGM.
Dileep Mavlankar, director, Indian Institute of Public Health, said the risky behaviour is likely to continue in the coming months. Ahmedabadbased Mavlankar pointed out how several garba organisers in the city are debating whether or not to hold events during Navratri by maintaining social distancing.
“It is not only people out shopping for flowers, idols, artefacts, gifts throwing caution to the wind. Meeting friends and relatives also increases the risk of infection. One needs to start an active campaign to encourage the symptomatic to stay indoors,” said Mavlankar.
The worry, point out experts, is that almost 85 per cent of the cases now getting reported are asymptomatic.
Moreover, Mavlankar says the amount of time people are spending communicating online while stuck at home may also be adding to the ‘lockdown fatigue’. He says it is important to highlight the survival cases through a media campaign. “People were initially succumbing to the bogey of fear and were careful. Fatigue and a lackadaisical approach to safety are responsible for the high numbers,” he added.
The director of a leading private hospital in Mumbai said they have seen a surge in patients visiting their fever clinic after the Ganpati festivities; the number of Covid-19positive admissions, too, have gone up consequently with reduced compliance.