Trumpism lives
Polarisation will sustain his brand of politics
Even as some Republican Congressmen have indicated that they may join the Democrats in bringing articles of impeachment against US President Donald Trump, it would be wrong to see the problem of extreme polarisation in US politics receding because of the shock over the attack on Capitol Hill, or because Mr Trump is being replaced by a moderate centrist Democrat in Joe Biden. As the events of January 6 showed, Mr Trump retains a huge, committed following with a significant voice in the electorate. In 2020, he increased his popular vote by almost a percentage point over 2016 (46.1 to 46.9 per cent), and managed to raise large sums of money after the election to finance his, ultimately unsuccessful, campaign alleging widespread voter fraud. Though the president’s close advisors claim his actions have affected the electoral hopes of several of his supporters, Mr Trump is unlikely to retreat from politics because he needs to fend off financial problems and possible legal repercussions on account of his actions as president.
Mr Trump and his donors could well view his 2024 presidential bid as strong, because Republicans are unlikely to dissociate themselves from him and his vocal support base. Several of those who have done so have seen their careers stalled and it is worth noting that nearly two-thirds of House Republicans voted to invalidate the presidential vote even after the Capitol attack. So, despite some spirited opposition from congressional Republicans, such as Senator Lisa Murkowksi, and Vice-president Mike Pence’s public break with the president, this second attempt at impeachment will probably go the way of the first. The Georgia victory may strengthen Democrats in the Senate, but Republicans will continue to prevaricate and modulate their positions as they have done these past four years over escalating breaches of presidential ethics. The threat to established rules and verifiable facts remains very real. Mr Trump, after momentarily retreating, is back in action, and though he has grudgingly conceded the election finally (but did not dignify his concession by congratulating Mr Biden), he has announced that he would not follow the tradition of attending the inauguration of the 46th president on January 20.
The fact is that Mr Biden will inherit the serious economic and social reasons that underlie this polarisation and these have to be dealt with. For instance, the job losses created by globalisation are real and although the numbers as a percentage of the population are small, it was Mr Trump who gave these unintended, mostly white, victims a voice. Then, there is the issue of race. Many commentators pointed to the marked difference between the crackdown on protestors at Black Lives Matter rallies and the kid-glove treatment to the white supremacists who invaded the Capitol. In the Senate, the Republicans benefit disproportionately because thinly populated states in the white-dominated heartland have the same number of seats as populous California and New York. Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities with disproportionate numbers of poor, people in jails and at the receiving end of police excesses are asking for basic rights and the equality so far denied to them. The rise to office of politicians such as Barack Obama and Kamala Harris is, therefore, a red rag to people who already feel threatened, and Mr Trump is playing to this base along with other Republicans. Mr Biden will discover that it will require more than mollifying rhetoric to heal these deep divisions in American society.