Economy to shrink 7% in FY21, says SBI

Pencilling in a growth in GDP in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21

GDP numbers. In April-september, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth, if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

In April-june, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent. “We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of – 7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI, said 51% of high-frequency indicators are showing acceleration