India, Pakistan agree to ceasefire on LOC

With attention focused on the partial disengagement of Indian and Chinese troops from a nine-monthlong confrontation in eastern Ladakh, a surprise joint statement from the Indian and Pakistani armies on Thursday announced a ceasefire on the 776-km Line of Control (LOC) that divides the former state of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) into Indian and Pakistan-controlled parts.

The joint statement said: “Both sides agreed for strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control and all other sectors with effect from midnight 24/25 Feb 2021.”

With 90,000 Indian troops locked in confrontation with Chinese troops since last May, there has been apprehension that Pakistani troops could join forces with China to impose a two-front war on India. On Wednesday, however, foreshadowing an easing of tensions with Pakistan, India’s army chief, M M Naravane, dismissed such speculation.

Asked in Delhi about Pakistani collusion with China, Naravane said, “There were no overt signs of any such collusion. Whatever they (the Pakistanis) were doing, they continued doing. There were no large-scale mobilisations or any such activity that would be suggestive of any kind of help being given by one to the other.”

Officially, Indian and Pakistani troops remain bound by a ceasefire agreed to at the end of 2003. However, that is now a paper agreement with cross-loc firing sharply increasing over the years. The government reported to Parliament earlier this month that 5,133 ceasefire violations took place along the LOC in 2020, killing 46 persons.

The 2003 ceasefire was not officially repudiated even in September 2016, when the Indian army launched multiple commando raids across the LOC on terrorist camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) in retaliation for the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers at the hands of four Pakistan-backed terrorists in the border town of Uri in J&K.

The ceasefire officially remained in place even through Indian airstrikes on a terrorist camp in Balakote, in Pakistan’s Khyberpakhtunkhwa province in February 2019, in retaliation for the killing of 46 Indian armed policemen in a suicide attack that was believed to have originated in Pakistan.

Negotiations for the ceasefire were carried out mainly behind the scenes, between Ajit Doval, India’s National Security Advisor, and Moeed Yusuf, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s special assistant for national security and strategic policy planning.

In an audio statement that was released in Islamabad, Yusuf termed the ceasefire, a “very solid and positive” development that justifies the success of Pakistan’s Kashmir policy. In fact, the crucial driver of Pakistan’s outreach has been its Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Qamar Javed Bajwa, who, unlike many of his predecessors, believes the Pakistan Army’s long-term interests lie in reducing tensions with India.

Soon after taking over as COAS from the hawkish Raheel Sharif, Bajwa sent an unprecedented backchannel message to the Indian COAS, Bipin Rawat, calling for toning down the temperature along the LOC so that he could rein in hotheads in the Pakistan Army.

Pakistan Army sources describe the reaction when Bajwa enunciated his new thinking. On a visit to a forward in late 2016, after being briefed by the company commander on his plans for causing mayhem on the Indian post across the LOC, Bajwa shocked those present by remarking: “So, will that result in the Pakistani flag flying over the Raj Bhawan in Srinagar?”

With India embroiled in confrontation with China, Bajwa has restrained Pakistani commanders who argued this was the ideal time to damage India. Earlier this month, speaking at the Pakistan Air Force Academy, Bajwa said it was time to extend a “hand of peace in all directions” and for resolving the Kashmir issue in a “dignified and peaceful manner”.

With the Indian Army having switched at least four divisions from the Pakistani frontier to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, there is greater appetite in New Delhi for Bajwa’s conciliation.

Officially, India and Pakistan remain bound by a ceasefire agreed to in 2003. However, that is now a paper agreement with cross-loc firing increasing over the years