Tighten your seatbelts

So, here we are after the second shock of the pandemic behind us and air traffic tentatively picking up once again. For over a year now, uncertainty has ruled the world and India, too, remains in choppy waters, choppier than most. All of us have emerged from this second wave a bit shakier.

But for the aviation industry as a whole, let me sum up what we do and don’t know as we head further into the year, keeping our fingers crossed. One thing we do know is that like the rest of the world, India too will face more waves. I’m not clear on what basis, but experts predict the next wave in October, which is usually the peak season for airlines in India. In other words, the slight uptick in domestic loads and traffic seen currently (since early June) is likely to take yet another hit and the mild optimism we see among fliers may recede soon. So, the recovery — if at all it can be termed one —may be rather short-lived.

Second, chances are high that all the existing players will survive the crisis. In a recent conversation, Indigo Chief Executive Officer Ronojoy Dutta said that if any of the Indian carriers were to go bust, it would have happened by now. He doesn’t really expect anyone to fold up. Some of the airlines may emerge much smaller but perhaps stronger as a consequence. We can expect all six scheduled airlines (Air India, Indigo, Spicejet, Go First, Airasia India and Vistara) to stay in the game in varying levels of disarray.

A third certainty is that the sector — be it vendors, suppliers, aircraft manufacturers, lessors, employees — will take years to recover, no matter which aspect one takes into account. Jobs lost are unlikely to come back soon, if at all. Willie Walsh, the recentlyappointed International Air Transport Association chief, struck a pessimistic note when he declared that airlines globally will never recover the capacity they lost over the last 15 months and many would emerge much smaller. Environmentalists probably rejoiced at his words.

Let me now move on to the stuff we simply have no way of predicting. My mind boggles at the sheer number and magnitude of these. Like who in his right mind will buy Air India in this environment? What value can a prospective buyer see? Who has the courage to take on Air India’s considerable headaches in the present situation? At what price? And what happens if nobody comes forward? Will the government force it down the throat of one of the bidders? Is it a fait accompli for the Tata group as many claim? Where is this tree of cash located from which Messrs Chandra and Co seem to be endlessly plucking to keep Vistara and Airasia India afloat? Can this tree be cloned quickly so they can also fund Air India? Moreover, can they share this information with the rest of us, equally in need of similar trees?

Further, who will subscribe to the Go First initial public offering? Will investors willingly put their hard earned money into a sector that is on its knees? Is the stock market truly as illogical and driven by raw greed as many argue? Not many airlines in the world have chosen this unique route to survival.

And even further there is the question mark over the ability of Murari Lal Jalan and the Kalrock combine to pull off the jaw-dropping feat of reviving Jet Airways. What is left to revive exactly and will they actually put their money where their mouth is? Surely, they must have noticed that the industry situation is somewhat altered even from the time when they first decided to fund the revival. Then, there are the passengers who want to know when they can expect to look up and see the much loved Jet logo staring down at them. They are wondering if there is some kind of timeline for this miracle to happen.

I have some more questions for specific airlines. How long can low-fare airline Spicejet keep fighting the reality and pushing the envelope the way it has been? The unpaid bills cannot pile up forever— at some point the chickens would come home to roost. And isn’t the airline’s chief biting off more than he can chew? By all accounts he’s in the fray to buy Air India even as he tries to keep Spicejet afloat.

I could go on and on but let me end here by saying that in a world where uncertainty is the only certainty, we must all tighten our seatbelts and await the next bout of turbulence while flying on a wing and a prayer.