Mumbai, Delhi traffic moves close to pre-covid days

Other indicators also show economic revival strengthening

More people are stepping out of their homes in a sign of a strengthening economic recovery as Covid19 cases remain subdued in much of the country. There have been less than 40,000 cases a day in the previous week compared to the daily peak of over 400,000 in May, shows data from tracker covid19india.org.

As confidence builds, traffic in Mumbai touched 90 per cent of pre-pandemic levels. New Delhi traffic, too, was back on the road, touching 85 per cent of normal levels, shows data from global location technology firm Tomtom International (see chart 1).

People stepped out for multiple reasons, but essential shopping, and retail and recreation visits marked some of the strongest gains.

Shopping for groceries and medicines was 31.1 per cent higher than in pre-pandemic times. Retail and recreation visits were nearly 85 per cent of what was seen before Covid-19 became widespread (see chart 2). These mobility numbers are based on anonymised location data from search engine Google. This data is released with a lag and the latest is as of August 17.

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide, which comes from industrial activity and vehicles. Delhi’s emissions were nearly at 2019 levels. Mumbai emissions, based on Bandra locality data, had also returned to normal levels (see charts 3, 4).

The Indian Railways also saw strong growth in the amount of goods carried — at 19.6 per cent higher for the week ending August 22 than the corresponding period in the previous year. Earnings from the goods carried were 20.8 per cent higher (see chart 5).

Power demand remained strong last week but it moderated on a week-on-week basis after reaching a two-year high (). Over 4,300 million units of electricity were generated per day on an average during the week ended August 22 — slightly lower than the daily average of the previous week.

Generation was, however, up around 20 per cent year-on-year over the same week in 2020 and 2019. The surge in power demand is attributed to the rise in industrial activity and normalisation of retail and recreation hours in major cities, besides an erratic monsoon.

Business Standard tracks these indicators to get a sense of how the economy is doing ahead of the government data, which is often released with a lag.

Analysts globally have been tracking such indicators to assess the fast-changing situation on the ground as different countries adjust their pace to control the pandemic. All data, except Google, is as of Sunday, August 22.