Positivity rate & vaccination point to confounding Covid

Datafrom42mostaffecteddistrictsbypositivityrateshowsthat,onanaverage, thesehavehighervaccinatedpopulationthantherestofthecountry

Logic dictates that higher vaccination should translate into fewer cases and better protection against Covid-19. But a Business Standard analysis shows that the converse is true. Data from 42 districts with more than 10 per cent positivity rate from August 18 to 24 reveals that these districts fared better than the rest of the country in vaccinating their population.

The 42 districts, which include all 14 of Kerala and a majority from the Northeast, had administered at least one vaccine dose to 46.2 per cent of their population till August 24. And 15.2 per cent of the eligible people in these districts were fully vaccinated as on August 24. By comparison, average partial vaccination across the rest of India’s districts stood at 35 per cent.

More importantly, an analysis of the 29 districts with positivity rates between 5 per cent and 10 per cent shows that even these were better vaccinated than the rest of the districts. These 29 districts had been able to administer at least one dose to 38.3 per cent of their people and fully vaccinate 11.5 per cent. The rest of the districts with less than 5 per cent positivity were able to cover only 35 per cent of people with the first dose and 9.8 per cent with both doses.

While Kerala had one of the highest vaccination rates among Indian states, further analysis of data reveals that the high-positivity districts had a better vaccination rate than the rest.

Two districts of Rajasthan (Churu and Hanumangarh), with over 10 per cent positivity, for instance, were able to vaccinate 40.5 per cent of their population partially, and 12.3 per cent fully. In contrast, the rest of the state (less than 5 per cent positivity rate) averaged 38.9 per cent and 11.9 per cent, respectively.

The reason for vaccination not doing enough to stave off infection is partly that in most districts, the rate of fully vaccinated population is still below 20 per cent. As recent data from the US and

Israel indicates, vaccines are effective against serious infections, not at preventing infections, especially against coronavirus variants.

Until the entire population is vaccinated, or until the threat of variants looms, herd immunity may remain a hypothetical construct.

An analysis of countrywide figures shows that if India keeps to its current vaccination rate (5.3 million doses per day), it would be able to fully vaccinate the entire eligible population (18 and above) only by April 2022, and partially vaccinate all only by January next year.

To fully vaccinate the entire population by January 2022, India would need to increase its current rate of vaccination by three times and inoculate nearly 15 million people daily.

The reason for vaccination not doing enough to stave off infection is partly that in most districts, the rate of fully vaccinated population is still below 20 per cent