The chancellor’s legacy

Repair work needed on Germany’s external relations

The divided mandate given by voters in the Bundestag election in Germany means that Chancellor Angela Merkel will have to remain in office for weeks or months yet, as the country goes through a complex process of coalition negotiation and formation. After the last election, this process took six full months. In this one, there is at least one clear shift: Ms Merkel’s ruling Christian Democratic Union/christian Social Union party won only 24.1 per cent of the vote, the lowest vote share in its history. Meanwhile, the other major party and the CDU/CSU’S partner in the three recent “grand coalition” governments, the Social Democrats, increased their share of the vote by over 5 percentage points to top the CDU/CSU at 25.7 per cent of the vote. This is both a sign of stability and one of change. It is a sign of stability that, given the SPD and CDU/CSU have ruled in coalition for 13 of the past 16 years, they have together still received a simple majority — half the votes cast. It is also one of change in that it is clear that voters have rejected the CDU/CSU’S nominee for chancellor, Armin Laschet. Indeed, the rejection of the two major parties is particularly strong among young people, who have voted in much larger numbers for the liberal Free Democrats and the Greens.

Ms Merkel’s dominance of German politics is underlined by the probability that the SPD’S increased vote share is due to defecting CDU/CSU voters who decided that its candidate for the top job, current finance minister Olaf Scholz, represents a safe pair of hands not dissimilar to the outgoing chancellor. Yet although Ms Merkel’s tenure has solidified Germany’s leading position in Europe, it has also left a great deal for the next chancellor to manage. Her shift away from nuclear power a decade ago means that Germany is still lagging in terms of climate change mitigation, which has empowered the Greens; and the government’s failure to fully fund the country’s pension system has energised supporters of the Free Democrats, who have taken on the mantle of fiscal responsibility.

Whoever the next chancellor is — and the likelihood remains that it will be Mr Scholz, leading a coalition that includes the Greens and the Free Democrats — there will also be a great deal of repair work to undertake on Germany’s external relations. Certainly, many will be relieved that the disruptive possibility of a coalition between the SPD and the former East German Communist party, now called simply “the Left”, has been removed since such a coalition would have forced divisions in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, and affected relations with Russia. Even so, an alliance including both economic liberals such as the Free Democrats and free-spenders like the left-wing of Mr Scholz’ party and the Greens, would struggle to come to a conclusion on how to deal with such matters as fiscal reform in the EU. From India’s perspective, however, any coalition that includes the Free Democrats and the Greens might be welcome in that it would almost certainly moderate what has been — under the grand coalition governments — Berlin’s excessively dovish tone on Beijing. Both the smaller parties have demanded a tougher line on China in terms of trade, investment, and Indopacific security, and have criticised the CDU/CSU/SDP coalition for allowing economic interests to supersede all other considerations. As France also heads into a combative election campaign, it is to be hoped that Europe will not be leaderless for too long.