WTO hikes trade growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022

The World Trade Organization (WTO) revised upwards its forecasts for growth of global goods trade this year and in 2022, but warned of a two-track recovery leaving poor countries behind and downside risks from the Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain problems.

The WTO said on Monday it expected merchandise trade would grow this year by 10.8 per cent after a fall of 5.3 per cent in 2020. In March, it had forecast 2021 growth of 8.0 per cent. The Geneva-based trade body said that trade growth should slow to 4.7 per cent in 2022, more than its previous forecast of 4.0 per cent, with trade approaching its pre-pandemic long-term trend. Director-general Ngozi Okonjo-iweala described the upgrades as good news but not a cause for complacency, with risks of new outbreaks or variants of the coronavirus.