Good time to stock up on FMCG shares, say experts
But warn that rising retail inflation could undo gains from moderating input prices
Stocks of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies have been relative underperformers at the bourses thus far in financial year 2021-22 (FY22), with the S&P BSE FMCG index rising 6.3 per cent compared with the over 15 per cent gain in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
The underperformance, analysts said, was mostly on account of concerns of a slowdown in consumption as a result of rising input costs in an inflationary environment. According to Nielseniq, India’s FMCG market grew 12.6 per cent in the September quarter (Q2) year-on-year (YOY), led by higher product prices and an increase in urban consumption. Volume growth in Q2 stood at 1.2 per cent.
“The slowdown is apparent in volume growth, but due to price increases, value growth may not show a slowdown. Inflation in product prices has caused some down-trading, while at the same time, regional/local brands have suffered due to inability to operate in the inflationary environment,” wrote analysts at IIFL in a recent note.
As a result of rising prices, rural markets witnessed a slowdown due to a dip in consumption, with value growth coming in at 9.4 per cent, according to Nielseniq. Volumes, on the other hand, contracted 2.9 per cent due to lower consumption of items like cooking oil, packaged grocery, hot beverages, and fabric care.
“Rising input costs have been a concern for companies, especially in the FMCG segment. Companies, on their part, tended to pass on this rise to the consumers. With crude oil prices correcting sharply from their recent high, a lot of these concerns should abate. This is a good time to buy ITC and Nestlé, Hindustan Unilever (HUL). Given the fears of Omicron Covid variant, oil prices are unlikely to retreat to their recent highs in a hurry, which should be good news for companies, especially in the FMCG sector,” explained G Chokkalingam, founder and chief investment officer of Equinomics Research.
An inflationary environment and price hikes have complicated the picture, said analysts at IIFL, as FMCG products have a price elasticity of around -0.5x, which means volume growth will be impacted negatively, but value growth will be impacted positively.
“Companies with a higher weighting to low-income consumers (either in the total sales or in terms of growth) could be more impacted than others, and companies with a high innovation rate will be able to stave off the effects of a slowdown,” IIFL said.
In the FMCG basket, Britannia, Colgate Palmolive, HUL are on the shopping list of A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital. “Easing input cost pressures will aid the overall performance of companies. The fall in the market from its recent high has corrected the valuation in a number of these counters,” he said.
The risks
Though reopening, exports, and government spending should support growth early next year, Nomura cautions that high inflation is a risk to private consumption demand, amid muted income growth for lower income households.