In Kerala, BJP may feed on LDF anti-incumbency
TOO CLOSE TO CALL. UDF starts favourite but it may be more a negative vote for the LDF
Kerala may provide a test case of how an interplay of time, place, and circumstances might create a perfect storm of unpredictability, challenging conventional wisdom and humbling seasoned observers with respect to electoral outcomes. Some of them even fantasise about 2024 inexorably signalling an end to decades-long two-party politics.
Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge was not exactly shooting in the dark while on a visit here on Wednesday, the last day of campaigning, when he talked about how an undercurrent of ‘invisible voters’ might influence results. One needs to wait until June 4 to know whether he meant what he said while interacting with newspersons.
Analysts diered to agree that the outcome may favour the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) thanks to strong anti-incumbency against the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front which is halfway through a rare second term. The results may point more to a negative vote to the LDF than an outright popular mandate for the UDF.
While there is absolutely no singular decisive factor for voters to rally around this time, unlike the Sabarimala agitation of 2019, the anti-Modi wave too is conspicuous by its absence. In fact, the Prime Minister himself visited the state a number of times to preempt build-up of negative vibes against the BJP. His outreach to Christian votes, the X-factor in the electoral scheme of things, was noted for its intent and clarity of purpose.
THREE-CORNERED FIGHT
The upshot is strong and intense three-cornered contests in a number of constituencies. Out of the 20, some are too close to call, while potential upsets could be in store in a few. The bugbear of cross voting/vote transfer on the day of polling can confound even the best predictive models while the swing factor in the form of undecided or marginal voters is often masked until the time they exercise their franchise.
YOUNG BLOODS
An estimated 3.11 lakh voters in the 18-19 age group were added to the electoral rolls in the past few months. Their votes could prove decisive, though the number has reduced to 5,34,394 this year from 5,49,969 in 2019 due to migration on varied pursuits. Similarly, votes in the 20-29 age group has reduced by more than 2.5 lakh to 44,71,938 from 47,22,867, while those in the 30-39 age group fell by the biggest margin of three lakh to 54,28,204 this year from 57,67,127 of 2019.
UNPREDICTABLE SEATS
This has rendered results unpredictable in Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur, which are top picks among A-class seats for the BJP. Sitting MP Shashi Tharoor of the Congress is seeking a fourth term in the fight against Rajeev Chandrasekhar of the BJP, his toughest opponent till date. Chandrasekhar has taken special care to cover coastal areas which have proved BJP’s Achilles’ heel in past elections, while urban Hindu votes in Thiruvananthapuram, Vattiyoorkav and Nemom Assembly segments may back him.
THE TOUGH NUT
Thrissur may prove the toughest nut to crack, with an entrenched Rajya Sabha MP and actor Suresh Gopi of the BJP taking on K Muraleedharan of the Congress and popular MLA VS Sunil Kumar. The Prime Minister indicated that Gopi is his ‘chosen one’ by launching the election campaign from Thrissur, followed by more two more visits. Analysts say part of the Christian votes disillusioned with the LDF rule is likely to shift to the BJP, lending Gopi an outside chance in a clash of equals. This trend is likely to be replicated in other seats as well where Christians are a significant minority.
Constituencies in the northern districts, traditional CPI(M) strongholds, too are witnessing tight contests, even photo finishes. Vadakara, Kannur, Palakkad and Alathur fall in this category. Any adverse results can upend the party’s plans to retain national party status. Shailaja Teacher, former health minister, has run into a strong Congress candidate in a much younger Shafi Parambil in Vadakara. Vibes from the remaining 11 seats from where the party is contesting are not reassuring either.