After dipping from record highs, turmeric may shine later this year
Turmeric prices have dropped from the highs of nearly ₹20,000 a quintal a few weeks ago in the futures market but they are likely to rise again later this year, traders and analysts say.
“Prices (in the futures market) have dropped 1015 per cent to levels of ₹16,50017,000 currently after having increased to nearly ₹20,000 a quintal. The downside may be limited not below ₹15,000. But prices will likely gain after July,” said Ankit Agarwal, Director at Erodebased Amar Agarwal Foods India Ltd.
On the NCDEX, turmeric futures for delivery in June closed at ₹17,390 a quintal.
“We expect prices to drop a bit further before stabilising. Probably, after September we can see some movement,” said Sunil Patil, proprietor of Sanglibased Vardalaxmi Trading company.
LOWER CROP
According to Biplab Sarma, Senior Research Analyst, AgriWatch, 5,400 bags (50 kg) of new arrivals were reported at Nanded spot market on Tuesday and they traded at the price bracket of ₹15,00017,500 a quintal. New crop supply of 10,500 bags were reported at Nizamabad with a 1015 per cent moisture and in Erode, 18,500 bags of new arrivals were reported. They were over 25 per cent higher compared with the previous week, he said.
“Prices gained as the crop was lower this year. Crop has arrived in parts of Tamil
Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh,” said Nizamabadbased trader Amrutlal Kataria.
As anticipated by AgriWatch, the current year is witnessing price support as a consequence of the reduced production, said Sarma.
There has been at least a 20 per cent drop in production in Tamil Nadu, Telangana and
Maharashtra pushing up prices to record highs, Agarwal said.
EXPORT DEMAND
He said new arrivals are expected from the Marathwada region in Maharashtra and it could keep prices on leash. “Also, there has been demand destruction with many going handtomouth as prices surged. This is one of the reasons for prices to decline,” he said.
Export demand, however, is steady, said Patil and Agarwal. However, Sarma said turmeric exports in January were 14,490.09 tonnes, down 2.17 per cent from December due to high prices. Patil said many stockists hedged their position and have gained due to this. “Demand, however, has slowed in view of high prices,” he said.
Patil and Agarwal said turmeric prices could stabilise in the ₹15,00016,000 region during AprilMay before heading in the direction of the demandsupply balance. “Overall, the scenario is bullish in the later part of the year,” Agarwal said, adding that demand currently is slack as the Ramadan month is getting over.