Four global models say El Nino will dissipate by Aprilend: Aus agency

Four of seven global climate models indicate that neutral El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) will return by Aprilend, while all models predict ENSO neutral conditions in May, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said today.

This will mean that El Nino, which resulted in record warm weather across the globe since June 2023 and warm ocean temperatures, will dissipate.

“International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Nino–

Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Nino nor La Nina), and all models indicating neutral in May,” BoM said in its climate driver update.

55% LA NINA CHANCES

The outlook has been seconded by Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a unit of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which said there is a 79 per cent chance of a transition from El Nino to ENSOneutral is likely by AprilJune 2024.

“Thereafter, La Nina is favoured in JuneAugust, and chances increase through the SeptemberNovember season,” the CPC said. It has said there is a 55 per cent chance of La Nina emerging during JuneAugust.

BoM reiterated private

Australian weather firm Weatherzone’s projection that the significant warming of the global oceans over the past 50 years will impact future prediction of ENSO events, “if based solely on historical climate variability”.

“Based on the historical record from 1900, around 50 per cent of El Nino events have been followed by an ENSOneutral year, and 40 to 50 per cent have been followed by La Nina,” the Australian weather agency said.

The CPC, in its latest outlook, said since late December 2023, positive SST anomalies have weakened across most of the Pacific. “During the last 4 weeks, aboveaverage sea surface temperatures weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,” it said, indicating the weakening of El Nino.