‘India has strongest trade growth’

With an overall index of 75 points, India continues to be the country with the strongest trade growth forecast, while trade growth in the US and China remains solid, as per DHL Global Trade Barometer.

As per the latest DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB), global trade will continue to grow over the next three months. With an overall index of 61 points, GTB’s analysis of international air and containerised ocean trade flows indicates that the development of the previous quarters will continue. Indices for all seven countries that constitute the GTB index are above 50 points, which corresponds to a positive growth forecast according to the underlying methodology. The pace of growth, however, is further slowing in all index countries. This deceleration will be particularly strong in Asia (except for China); index values for India, Japan and South Korea have dropped by eight, six and five points, respectively, compared to the previous release of the GTB in September 2018. “The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly shows that the state of global trade remains solid. Both air and ocean trade continue to grow around the world. However, given the trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, and economists’ expectations that the global economy could cool down, it is not entirely surprising that trade momentum has weakened slightly,” said Tim Scharwath, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding, Freight. Trade growth in the US (61 points) and China (58 points) remains solid. Both countries’ momentum of growth is slowing only moderately by two and one points, respectively, even though both countries would have much to lose if their trade conflict escalated. With a two-point decline and an index value of 56 points, Germany’s loss of trade growth momentum turns out to be moderate, too, compared to September. While the UK was able to keep its GTB index unchanged in the previous release, its growth forecast has now deteriorated noticeably by four points. This makes it the index country with the weakest growth forecast. With 53 points, the UK is only slightly above the 50-point mark, which indicates stagnation in trade growth. The worldwide deceleration of trade growth is attributable to decline in both containerised ocean freight and international air trade. South Korea is the only country where a growth forecast for ocean trade remains unchanged. In all the other countries, the outlook for ocean trade is declining. Furthermore, the air trade outlook is going down in every index country. With an eye on individual sector developments, industrial raw materials contributed most to international trade growth, followed by machine parts and basic raw materials. The weakest growing categories were consumer & household goods, capital equipment, and machinery parts.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly shows that the state of global trade remains solid Tim Scharwath CEO DHL Global Forwarding, Freight