India to lead global economic growth in Q2
Despite a fall in both air and ocean trade growth, India’s growth pace will continue to be the highest among the world’s largest economies, according to the DHL Global Trade Barometer.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data, revealed that India’s trade growth outlook – coming in at 59 points on the Index – will be driven primarily by an uptake in both import and export of personal household goods, temperature or climate-controlled goods, and land vehicles and parts, which increased in index points by 19, 16 and 2, respectively. However, India’s ocean trade dropped sharply by almost 20 points to 63, while air trade is also expected to stagnate in the coming quarter.
“India has not been immune to the current global economic climate, but business operating in the country can afford to remain positive. Despite increasing headwinds, India has managed to maintain the highest predicted trade growth of all the GTB countries,” said Kevin Leung, CEO-Asia Pacific, DHL Global Forwarding. “With its annual GDP growth rate still running at an impressive 7.5 per cent, India remains somewhat insulated from global trade volatility thanks to high domestic private consumption, which accounts for 60 per cent of the country’s GDP and is expected to generate up to $6 trillion in opportunities for growth. It’s no surprise that the personal household goods sector is seeing a steady increase on the ocean import side, while a decrease in air exports of consumer fashion goods appears to have been largely offset by high domestic consumption,” he added. The Barometer’s results also suggest that global trade growth is set to slow down over the next three months, signaling only a slight growth. However, the top three nations with the highest indexes are all in Asia, namely India, Japan, and China. Indices for all seven countries that constitute the Global Trade Barometer Index – including the US, UK and Germany – are above 50 points except for South Korea. In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.
With its annual GDP growth rate at an impressive 7.5%, India remains insulated from global trade volatility