Pak’s political cliff
Chaos Theory is a course taught at many prestigious universities to analyse and predict developments during crises. Pakistan’s short but turbulent political history provides excellent data for such a study.
The causes of Pakistan’s crises, and periodic chaos, have been mostly internal. Almost always, they can be attributed to a remarkable inability to resolve political differences peacefully.
Military coups — in 1958, 1968, 1977 and 1999 — and military-backed regime changes — in 1971, 1991 and 1993 — were the frequent consequence of such failure.
But the consequences for the country of political failure were much more fundamental. What imbues our polity today, apart from terrorist violence, is a disregard for the enfranchised but powerless millions.
The last major crisis in Pakistan emerged from the confrontation between the then President and the Chief Justice. It exploded into a tragedy with the assassination of a former Premier. The present leaders won the mandate, partly due to the resulting sympathy vote.
But five years of this government’s rule, to quote a famous baseball player, has been “déja vu all over again”. If anything, corruption, and bad governance have surpassed all records. Given the structure of Pakistan’s electoral system, the normal exercise of democracy is unlikely to produce results that will change Pakistan’s governance or address its fundamental problems. The result is likely to be more “déja vu all over again”. The protest reflected in the Tahir-ul Qadri movement is surprising only in so far as it took so long to happen.
Pakistan’s exploited majority has so far endured the blatant failures of governance. Imran Khan’s earlier tsunami and Qadri’s large congregations are clear signals that the patience of many of Pakistan’s suffering people has run out.
When political “springs” emerge suddenly, there are, naturally, many questions about their objectives. Such questions were raised when Imran Khan generated large crowds calling for change.
Such questions and doubts did not change the fact that his movement reflected the sentiments of a large segment of Pakistanis. Even though his tsunami could not be sustained, the sentiments have not changed.
The question is whether the Qadri movement should be suppressed or ignored by the government as making demands for interim governance is against the Constitution, or whether there should be a endeavour to respond to the dissatisfaction that has come to the surface. Wisdom would dictate the latter course.
The frustrations reflected in the recent protests can easily worsen into a larger national crisis. The Supreme Court’s order for the arrest of the Prime Minister, even if unconnected to the Qadri marches, is reflective of Pakistan’s unresolved problems. It adds to the perception that Pakistan may descend into chaos.
Indeed, chaos could easily grip Pakistan from several directions. Internally, there can be no stability without ending the violence. The Balochistan insurgency poses an even greater threat to the Pakistani state. The economy is in dire straits. Without external financial support, it could descend into a death spiral.
Externally, the challenges are considerable. The recent clashes with India on the LoC can pose an early threat to Pakistan, not withstanding Islamabad’s attempts at compromise and appeasement. If the fundamental problems of Pakistan are left unattended, the country could descend from crisis to chaos. Therefore, reform must be embraced by everyone in Pakistan. The proposition that fundamental reforms are required, whether voiced by Qadri, Imran Khan or others, should be put to a referendum. Without that Pakistan is poised to fall off the political cliff.