François Hollande could still win

François Hollande appears to have been consigned to the political mortuary. The first Socialist French President since François Mitterrand has been more unpopular than any of his predecessors. His approval rating sank to 13 per cent towards last year end. His style of government has been ridiculed. His private life has been the subject of mockery. He is compared to the hapless captain of a pedalo navy or a wobbly French pudding, a Flanby.

But don’t write off Flanby. Thanks to the peculiarity of French presidential elections, he may well win a second term. In order to understand how, go back to the election of 2002, when the first ballot set up a runoff between the conservative incumbent, Jacques Chirac, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front. The Socialist candidate, Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, had been edged out. It was a semi- nal moment in French politics. The citizens of the Fifth Republic voted for an unloved President just to keep out the far right. It is increasingly likely that, 15 years later, the same thing will happen in reverse: the incumbent, Francois Hollande, will win because his opponents are divided and the National Front is still distrusted by the majority.

Hollande has several things going for him. The economy remains a huge problem and unemployment is still high, but he has finally pushed through some reforms that are a step in the right direction. He has struck a firm line against Islamic extremists in Africa and West Asia. And Hollande has been portrayed domestically as the man who prevailed on Berlin to keep Greece in the euro. In truth, Germany took a more commanding position, but the perception goes down well in a country that shivers at the mention of austerity.

This record would not be enough to propel him to a second term on its own. His real hope lies in his opponents. Divisiveness in pursuit of personal ambition has distorted French politics since the revolution. The nadir came in 2002, when Socialist Jospin faced no fewer than nine rivals from the left. Had one or two stepped aside, he would have made it to the second round.

Five years later, the Socialists were less than united behind Ségolène Royal, Hollande’s previous partner and mother of his four children. The hard-charging Nicolas Sarkozy won, promising reforms, but by 2012 France had had enough of “le petit Nicolas”. Pollsters in Paris advised me not to watch the popu- larity polls, but the unpopularity numbers for the erratic “President Bling”. If you looked beyond the bluster, Sarkozy was pushing France deeper into uncompetitiveness. The presidency was there for the Socialists and, after Dominique Kahn’s imbroglio with a maid in Manhattan, the prize fell into the lap of Hollande.

Now Sarkozy is the comeback kid. He has formed a new party, Les Républicains. The name’s American connotations have not gone down well in France, but the party has bigger problems: it is sharply divided on personal lines. Alain Juppé, who was PM under Jacques Chirac, is the most popular centreright presidential candidate, credited with 32–34 per cent support, but at the new party’s inaugural congress in June he was booed by the Sarkozy faithful. The Républicains are firmly in Sarkozy’s grip but, with 25-28 per cent backing from the electorate at large, he lags Juppé.

Hanging over them are polls giving the savvy National Front leader, Marine Le Pen, 29-31 per cent support, which makes it probable that she will repeat her father’s achievement of 2002. That makes the real fight about who will be beside her when the faces of the two top first round contenders come up on TV screens.

The knives are out on the right. Neither Juppé nor Fillon will make life easy for Sarkozy, while Le Pen can easily mock Sarko’s hardline policies as “NF Lite” and urge voters to go for the real thing. But Sarkozy never gives up, and Juppé has problems that have not shown up in polls. There is his age (he will be 71 in 2017), his conviction in 2004 for abuse of public funds, and the memory of his premiership in the mid-1990s. For his part, Sarkozy is dogged by his disappointing presidency, his “bling” image and charges that he proposed to hand a position in Monaco to a judge in exchange for information about an investigation into alleged illegal campaign funding.

Hollande can safely sit back and leave the right to devour itself in personal battles. Despite grumbles from the left about his market-minded economic policies, the Socialist party will probably remain united behind him.

We can discard a recent poll reporting that 37 per cent of respondents think Strauss-Kahn would be a good presidential candidate.

If Hollande can simply get to the second round, he knows that France will rally to him. In 2002, Chirac received 82 per cent of the vote. So don’t write off Monsieur Flanby yet. As Juppé once said, in French politics “only death counts, otherwise, there is always the possibility of resurrection”.