Differences in exit polls puzzle betting network

■ While some surveys put Jagan ahead in AP, many favour Naidu

The differences in exit poll results for Andhra Pradesh have left the betting network in a confused state.

A few regional and News 18-IPSOS have projected the Telugu Desam as the winner. However, a number of national channel surveys, like the Axis polls, Center for Psephology studies have predicted that the YSRC would sweep the polls in both the LS and Assembly polls sending the world of betting into a tizzy.

If sources are to be believed, more than `500 crore have been bet in the satta bazaar (betting market).

Adding to the confusion is the confidence displayed by both TD president N. Chandrababu Naidu and YSRC chief Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy claiming that they will form the government in AP.

The AP Chief Minister, minutes after the exit polls took to twitter, to say, “Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the people’s pulse. Exit polls have proved to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances. While undoubtedly the TD government will be formed in AP, we are confident that nonBJP parties will form a non-BJP government at the centre.”

Earlier, a viral video of

Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy thanking political strategist Prashant Kishor for the 2019 win, where he came across as over-confident to many, triggered the punters to give YSRC anywhere between 100120 in the state polls and

15-17 LS seats for YSRC, TD 8 while others 0.

Until the release of exit polls, the betting was running at 1:2 ratio.

However, the market saw a drastic shift since the exit polls and the ratio has changed to 1:1.

A source said, “The fan party (YSRC) remained the safest bet for many until the exit polls were announced. Last Saturday,

following a hint given by the RG’s survey and subsequently News18’s prediction on Sunday, many gamblers came forward and bet on the TD, especially the cadre workers.

The punters have reconstructed their numbers in the game. In some villages, not many are aware of the National Survey but depend on regional figures.

A high number of regional surveys have predicted the TD’s win and this has forced the punters to reconstruct the bets. Those who weren’t confident of the TD have now placed a bet following the exit polls.

Many gamblers are now confused about who to bet on.”

Lagadpati Rajagopal Survey has predicted 90110 Assembly seats to the TD, followed by 65-79 to YSRC and others would get anywhere between 1-5 seats.

On the contrary, India Today Axis Poll has forecast 37-40 for the TD, 130135 for the YSRC, and a maximum of one seat for others. Also Today’s Chanakya has projected the TD to get 17±3 seats and YSR Congress 8±3 seats.

Meanwhile, responding to the Lagadpati Rajagopal survey, the YSRC leaders have called it a pre-planned exercise by the Telugu Desam.

While in TS, the bookies are bullish over the TRS. The punters are giving between 14-16 to the pink party and one for the AIMIM. The most popular bets in Telangana state is on who will be elected from Secunderabad and Bhongir as the BJP gave a tough fight to the TRS in the city and the Congress in Bhongir.

No authoritative estimates are available, but the election betting market is believed to run into hundreds of crores in both the Telugu speaking states.

It has grown exponentially in AP and the size of the satta bazaar is almost double of what it was in 2014.