TS affidavit in HC shows 37K Covid cases hidden

Data buried across different heads; fever survey offers clue

The state government informed the Telangana High Court on Tuesday that it had left out more than 37,000 potentially Covid-19 positive persons from the daily count of fresh cases between May 6 and May 30.

However, this startling number was not provided directly but was hidden amidst the numbers distributed under different heads, and buried in a set of data sheets on Covid-19 in Telangana.

Included in these documents was an affidavit filed by the Director of Public Health, as part of the state’s submissions to the court, which is hearing public interest litigations (PILs) on Covid management in Telangana state.

As part of the affidavit, the government informed the court that 16,01,040

Covid-19 outpatient consultations were registered and services provided across the state between May 6 and May 30. During the same time, 2,96,829 patients were given Covid19 medical kits.

Similarly, during this period, a state-wide fever survey was conducted to detect possible Covid-19. The survey covered

17,53,112 households, during which time, 3,60,634 medical kits were distributed to symptomatic people. In all, between May 6 and 30, the state health authorities distributed

6,57,453 medical kits during out-patient services and additionally as part of the household fever survey.

Further, as part of the affidavit, the Telangana state health authorities informed the High Court that the average positivity rate, which determines how many people are getting infected out of every hundred, stood at 6.39 per cent for the period between May 1 and May

29.

However, the average positivity rate for the period between May 6 and May

30 stood at 5.72 per cent, according to additional information provided in the affidavit, and as culled from daily Covid-19 bulletins.

As can be recalled, the state government had announced that these two exercises — household fever surveys and outpatient Covid medical kits distribution – were to ensure early identification of symptomatic persons and treating them instead of focusing on testing and getting results. Health officials described testing as a time-consuming process that left any

Covid-19 positive patient open to infecting others during the wait for the test results to come.

If this premise of "detecting and providing" medical kits to "untested but symptomatic Covid-19 cases" was the one Telangana health authorities believed, then, among the total of 6,57,453 people given medical kits, as per official positivity rate of

5.72 per cent, Telangana state possibly had 37,606

Covid-19 patients who were never tested and included in the official figures.

As per data provided in daily Covid-19 bulletins, new Covid-19 cases between May 6 and May 30 – the ones that were found through testing which are the only ones listed as confirmed Covid cases – stood at 94,187. This number could have been 1,31,793 had all symptomatic people found as part of treatment been tested, and assuming the positivity rates provided by health authorities are true. If not, the number could be even higher.