$43-bn jump in Adani fortune fraught with risks
Asymmetric risk-reward as large investors avoid Adani
A rally in the stocks of companies controlled by Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has added almost $43 billion to his wealth this year, catapulting him to the spot of the second-richest person in Asia. Some analysts say the gains are fraught with risk.
Adani's net worth of
$76.7 billion got a boost from a 330 per cent jump in Adani Total Gas Ltd, a
235 per cent rise in his conglomerate's flagship Adani Enterprises Ltd and a 263 per cent increase in Adani Transmission Ltd this
Aug
Sep
year. Adani Group stocks, especially these three, "look extended," Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Gaurav Patankar Nitin Chanduka in a June 10 after analysing indicators.
"Among the biggest foreign and wrote note technical investors are a few Mauritius-based funds holding over 95 per cent of assets in these companies," the analysts wrote. "Such concentrated positions, along with negligible onshore ownership, create asymmetric riskreward as large investors conspicuously avoid
Adani."
The analysis underscores the vulnerability of the rapid wealth surge Adani has seen in 2021, beating the gains for Warren Buffett and his compatriot Mukesh Ambani. A representative for Adani Group declined to comment immediately.
The overseas funds hold a large chunk of shares, effectively reducing the public float and leaving the stocks prone to volatility, the analysts wrote. Elara India Opportunities Fund, Apms Investment Fund, Cresta Fund, Albula Investment Fund, Lts Investment and Asia Investment Corp have put more than 95 per cent of their assets in Adani Group firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
The ports-to-power conglomerate also got a boost after MSCI Inc included three more Adani firms to its India benchmark index last month, taking the group's total footprint to five. This leads to mandated buying by investors that track this index.
"Adani stocks trade 150200 per cent above 200-day moving averages, and statistically look extended," Bloomberg Intelligence analysts wrote. "Tesla was 126 per cent above the
200-day when it peaked this year."