It’s time for straight talk with US on Afghanistan

Afghanistan, an embattled neighbour to which India has given considerable developmental assistance and security backing, finds itself once again in the throes of war and political uncertainty as the Taliban attempt to tighten their grip. New Delhi, however, is yet to enunciate the precepts that would guide its near and longer-term thinking in regard to Kabul. Pulling away, leaving Kabul to its fate, can hardly be an option. Even if India does not have a direct border with Afghanistan after Partition, that country lies just beyond our borders, and its strategic value is all too obvious. Also, arguably no country enjoys as much goodwill in Afghanistan as India does. This remains an important ingredient that can stand us in good stead if we choose our instruments wisely and in timely fashion.

No matter how unlikely for now, despite Taliban’s swift military moves, if a Pakistan-backed order does come to prevail in Kabul as a result of an outright Taliban battlefield victory, Kashmir can conceivably again be brought under inordinate military pressure. A Pakistan-dependent dispensation in Kabul, especially one that has strong Chinese backing, will also seek to deny India a physical link to Central Asia.

This point cannot be emphasised enough when the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, visits this week. There are, no doubt, important questions to be discussed which the US may like to flag — such as those concerning the Quad and the IndoPacific, climate, and human rights. It is up to India to escalate Afghanistan in a discussion with Mr Blinken. The US is a departing power from the Afghan battlefield and may not have strategic interests there, but India does. External affairs minister S. Jaishankar was spot on when he said in Dushanbe recently that “Afghanistan’s past cannot be its future”. The point, however, is to ensure that this does not happen. And in order to do so, the needed instruments have to be forged. What are those? That

Does the position of the White House

discount the remaining key political players in Afghanistan, along

with the Taliban?

is the question.

Countries of the region that share India’s anxiety on Afghanistan, in whole or in part — such as Russia, Iran, and some Central Asian capitals — will of course be in that conversation. During Mr Blinken’s visit, New Delhi will do well to probe America’s commitment to the sensitive situation in Afghanistan to prevent the worst case scenario from coming to pass. A clearer understanding is needed of what President Joe Biden means when he speaks of “over the horizon support” for Afghanistan. Last week the White House made two important observations. One, its press secretary pointedly noted, replying to media questions, that President Biden fully stands by Afghan president Ashraf Ghani. This was in the context of the Taliban, but there is another aspect conceivably. Does the position of the White House discount the remaining key political players in Afghanistan, along with the Taliban? If so, then India’s stand has to be differentiated from that of the US.

Two, the White House noted that the recent Taliban violence (and military activity) could raise questions about the Taliban’s commitment to political settlement which it had signed on with the US in the February 2020 Doha agreement. This needs to be discussed with Mr Blinken. Practically at the same time as the secretary of state, the Afghanistan army chief is also slated to be in India. He is unlikely to ask for the moon and deserves to be heard attentively.