Afghanistan: End of an era as Taliban returns

The return of the Taliban to Kabul 20 years after the US invasion of Afghanistan, whose natural outcome was the latter’s pervasive presence and meddling in every aspect of government even as the Afghans kept being bad-mouthed by the Westerner at every turn, marks the end of an era. The good that happened in that era was in the end bartered away by the masters in Washington when they wanted out as they had to please Pakistan and its proxy Taliban to ensure a safe exit.

As a consequence, the Afghan people feel betrayed. They had no wish that the US become a permanent guest even if there was acknowledgment that American presence had brought about a certain stability which allowed health and education to spread among deprived sections. Nevertheless, every Afghan desired that the guest leave without causing a big ripple. In the event the abrupt American departure has caused a tornado.

It has changed regional geopolitics, which now looks like becoming more China-centric, rather than Russia-centric or Iran-centric — and this is likely to be to India’s detriment. China, unlike Russia, has been a longterm strategic ally of Pakistan, and that may be expected to give Beijing added leverage in dealing with the incoming Taliban government in Kabul.

In time, the Taliban may well seek to be independent of Islamabad in a variety of ways, but the former insurgents are no doubt aware that the unseen Pakistani pressure on them will be irresistible. This is for a variety of reasons. One among them is that many leading Taliban have their families in Pakistan and they are likely to be made hostage. There are various financial dealings as well. It is therefore reasonable to expect that for the foreseeable future the Taliban government may have no choice but to follow Islamabad’s lead on crucial questions of interest to Pakistan.

Pakistan and Afghanistan are both in SAARC. If Kabul under the Taliban comes to mimic Islamabad’s position, India’s position in the grouping is likely to be impacted. China would naturally hope for such a result. Aside from the SAARC angle, a Taliban government subservient to Pakistan negatively affects India’s security interests, especially in the context of Kashmir.

Apart from these important considerations, India can conceivably play a part in moderating Taliban’s domestic actions, especially those that could impact the lives of girls and women, by continuing to abide in its solidarity with the people of Afghanistan. It is not wholly unlikely that the Taliban government will not be unseeing of the developmental and capacity-building done in Afghanistan by India in the past two decades at a considerable financial cost for a developing country.

It should soon be evident what course the incoming government in Kabul is embarking on. Diplomatically, it may be in the interest of this country to explore all options to remain engaged with the people of this SAARC member-state provided the government is not on a spree to strike at human rights.