K’taka politics’ statistics speak volumes
BJP confident of winning all seats, Cong. eyes 20 seats
As the political arena heats up with the forthcoming Parliament election, all eyes are on the Congress and BJP, each vying for supremacy. While BJP claims to sweep all 28 seats, Congress is aiming to grab at least 20 seats. An interesting question looms large in the minds of both the voters and party workers alike: will the 135 seats held by Congress in the 228-member Karnataka assembly help its prospects in the upcoming election? Both camps present convincing arguments. While Congress says that its sizable assembly presence will surely sway the tide in its favor, BJP counters by pointing to historical data where despite reigning in the state, Congress failed to beat the BJP in the parliament election.
In Karnataka politics, the statistics speak volumes. Over the past four elections, Congress has failed to break into double digits in the state. BJP leaders argue that past elections have shown a divergence in voting patterns between assembly and parliamentary contests. For instance, despite Congress holding 122 seats in the 2013 assembly elections, the following parliamentary election (in 2014) saw the BJP clinch 17 seats compared to the Congress’s 9. A similar trend continued in 2019, with BJP sweeping 25 seats while Congress and JD(S) managed only one each, even when the latter coalition held power in state Assembly.
Despite these trends, Karnataka’s electoral history reveals interesting facts. There are instances where the party with a stronger assembly presence also reaped greater parliamentary rewards.
In 1999, Congress, led by S.M. Krishna, formed the state government and secured 18 out of 28 parliamentary seats, overshadowing BJP’S tally of 7. In the 1994 assembly elections, JD(S), led by
H.D. Devegowda, won 115 seats and formed the state government, and in the parliament election held two years later (1996), the party achieved a record by winning 16 seats. Under the banner of the United Front, Gowda became the Prime Minister of India. Similarly, in 1989, Congress almost swept the Assembly polls with 178 seats. In the same year’s parliamentary election, the party won 27 out of 28 seats, with the remaining one going to Janata Dal.